PoliticsdiplomacyBilateral Relations
The Future of Global Geopolitics and Transformation After 2025
The term ‘polycrisis’ is everywhere these days, a neat shorthand for the tangled knot of geopolitical, economic, and environmental threats tightening around the global order. But as a political risk analyst, I find the term dangerously passive; it describes a condition, not a cause, and more critically, it obscures the agency—both collective and national—that got us here and will dictate what comes next.The period post-2025 isn't just about navigating perpetual disruption; it's a rare, volatile opening for far-reaching transformation, a hinge moment where the architecture of international relations could be reforged. We're not merely passengers in this storm.The current landscape is a direct product of deliberate choices: decades of hyper-globalization that created profound interdependencies and equally profound vulnerabilities; the retreat from multilateral frameworks that has left power vacuums; and the strategic miscalculations, from the war in Ukraine to the tech decoupling between the U. S.and China, that have accelerated the fragmentation of the global system into competing blocs. This isn't an act of God; it's the consequence of policy, ambition, and, often, neglect.The acute risks are glaring. We're watching the erosion of the post-Cold War rules-based order in real-time, replaced by a more transactional and adversarial model where might-makes-right instincts resurface.Regional flashpoints—the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula—carry higher escalation risks as trust diminishes and signaling becomes more opaque. Economic statecraft, weaponized through sanctions and export controls, is fragmenting supply chains and fueling inflation, while climate change acts as a relentless threat multiplier, exacerbating resource scarcity and migration pressures that destabilize already fragile regions.Yet, within this profound disruption lies the potential for transformation. History shows that systemic crises are the crucibles of new systems.The chaos of the 1930s and 1940s gave birth to the UN, the Bretton Woods institutions, and the modern concept of human rights. The post-2025 window represents a similar, if compressed, opportunity.The key will be whether major powers and emerging middle powers can move from managing crises to proactively shaping a new stability. This could manifest in several ways.We might see the pragmatic reinvention of multilateralism, not a return to the old, bloated institutions but the rise of nimble, minilateral coalitions focused on specific issues like climate finance, AI governance, or pandemic preparedness—think a ‘coalition of the willing’ model applied to global public goods. Technological disruption, particularly in AI and biotechnology, could force new, albeit fragile, arms control agreements, much like the Cold War-era treaties on nuclear weapons.
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