PoliticsdiplomacyBilateral Relations
The Future of Global Geopolitics After 2025
The term 'polycrisis' has become a fashionable shorthand in diplomatic circles and think-tank reports, a neat label to bundle the concurrent storms of geopolitical rivalry, economic fragmentation, and climate disruption. Yet, as a veteran observer of the patterns that shape our world, I find the term dangerously passive.It describes a condition we suffer, like a patient diagnosed with a complex syndrome, but it obscures a more fundamental truth: these crises are not acts of God; they are the direct outcomes of specific policy choices, strategic miscalculations, and a collective failure of foresight over the past two decades. The period post-2025, therefore, represents not merely a continuation of current tensions but a critical inflection pointâa rare historical juncture akin to 1945 or 1991, where the architecture of global order is up for renegotiation.The acute risks are self-evident. We are witnessing the accelerated unravelling of the post-Cold War consensus, characterized by America's retrenchment of its security guarantees, China's assertive bid for systemic leadership, and Russia's revisionist campaigns that have shattered European security norms.In the Global South, a new non-alignment is taking hold, not as the ideological project of the 20th century, but as a pragmatic, often transactional, pursuit of agency amidst great power competition. This fragmentation carries the peril of smaller, cascading conflicts, from the Taiwan Strait to the Eastern Mediterranean, and the severe economic toll of decoupling supply chains and weaponized interdependence.However, to focus solely on the peril is to miss the profound opportunity embedded within this disruption. History, as Churchillâwhose speeches I often recall for their clarity in chaosâreminded us, is written at these moments of supreme challenge.The very instability that threatens collapse also loosens the grip of entrenched interests and obsolete institutions. The opening exists for far-reaching transformation, but it demands conscious, concerted statecraft of a caliber we have not seen in generations.The transformation could manifest in several domains. Firstly, in security: the brittle, bipolar logic of NATO versus the Collective Security Treaty Organization is giving way to a more complex, networked system of regional security pacts and ad-hoc coalitions.The future may belong to agile, mission-specific alliances focused on issues like maritime security in the Indo-Pacific or cyber defense, rather than monolithic blocs. Secondly, in economics: the weaponization of the dollar and critical technologies is forcing a painful but necessary diversification.This could lead to a messy multipolar monetary system but also spur innovation in resilient, regional trade corridors and a rethinking of globalization's foundational principles. Thirdly, in governance: the legitimacy deficit of existing multilateral bodies, from the UN Security Council to the WTO, is now undeniable.
#global order
#polycrisis
#geopolitical transformation
#international relations
#featured
