Finance prediction markets
Finance prediction markets cover central bank decisions, inflation and jobs data, stock index levels, gold and company earnings. A price of 81¢ on “Fed cuts rates in December” means traders see about an 81% chance of a cut. These markets let you trade a single macro outcome directly, without building a position in bonds or futures.
Ends in 1 year
1 newsEnds in 29 days
2 newsEnds in 1 month$0.33 Vol.
Ends in 12 days
About Finance odds
How Fed and macro odds are set
Prices reflect what traders expect from the next data release or central bank meeting. Official statements, inflation and jobs reports and comments from policymakers move them most.
Prediction markets vs economists' forecasts
Economist surveys are published once before a release. Market odds update continuously and show how confident traders are, not only what they expect.
What moves these markets
CPI and jobs reports, central bank meetings and minutes, policymakers' speeches, earnings reports and bond yields.
Finance markets FAQ
What are Finance prediction markets?
Markets where you trade on the outcome of Finance events. Each price, from 1¢ to 99¢, is the crowd's estimate of the chance an outcome happens.
Which Finance markets are most active right now?
By 24-hour volume on November 11:
What kinds of finance markets can I trade?
Central bank decisions, such as whether the Fed or the ECB cuts, holds or raises rates at a given meeting; economic data, such as inflation (CPI), jobs, unemployment and GDP growth; index and asset levels, such as the S&P 500, the DAX or gold on a set date; and company events like earnings, IPOs and index changes.
Which data is used to settle a finance market?
The official publication named in the rules: the central bank's own statement for rate decisions, the statistics agency's release for inflation, jobs or GDP, and an official closing or settlement price for indices and commodities. Intraday prices, analyst forecasts and media estimates don't count.
What exactly counts as a rate cut or a CPI figure?
The rules spell it out, and the details matter. A rate market names the meeting and the rate it uses, for example the upper bound of the target range. A CPI market says whether it uses headline or core inflation, month-over-month or year-over-year, and to how many decimal places. Two markets that look alike can settle differently.
When do finance markets close?
The rules give the closing date, time and time zone. For rate and data markets these are tied to the scheduled announcement or release. Central banks and statistics agencies publish their calendars months ahead, so you know the resolution date before you trade.
What if a release is delayed or the data is revised?
Releases can slip, for example during a government shutdown. The market's rules say whether settlement waits for the delayed release, and whether later revisions count or the first published figure is final. Rules are never changed after the fact to produce a preferred result.
How are Finance markets resolved?
Each market's rules name the source that decides the result. After the event the result is checked against it, winning shares pay $1, and the balance is usually credited within 4–72 hours. If you think a result is wrong, write to support within 24 hours after settlement. How markets are resolved →
How much can I win or lose?
Each winning share pays $1 in USDC and each losing share pays $0. If the rules call a draw, every share pays $0.50. The most you can lose is what you paid: prediction markets have no leverage and no liquidation. Base trading fees are 0.25% for maker and 0.5% for taker orders, and your rate is shown in the order form before you confirm.
Can I sell before the market closes?
Yes. You can sell at the current price at any time while the market is open. Check the liquidity in the order book first: with few orders near the price, a large sale can fill at a worse average price.