What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a market where the thing being traded is the outcome of an event. Traders who think an outcome is likely buy it, and traders who disagree sell. The price they agree on is the crowd's estimate of the chance that the outcome happens. Because people put money behind their view, prices react to news within minutes, often faster than polls or expert forecasts.
How a market works
- 1A market asks a questionOne clear question, a closing date and written rules that name the source deciding the result.
- 2You buy Yes or NoThe two prices add up to about $1. If Yes costs 63¢, No costs about 37¢.
- 3The price is the forecast63¢ means traders put the chance at about 63%. News moves the price.
- 4Sell any time, or holdLock in a profit or cut a loss while the market is open.
- 5The market resolvesWinning shares pay $1, losing shares pay $0. Usually within 4–72 hours, straight to your USDC balance.
An example
“Will BTC close above $150,000 on Dec 31?” trades at Yes 40¢. You buy 100 Yes shares for $40.
Amounts before fees.
Who you trade with
You trade against other Outpoll users through an order book. All trades and orders are transparent: other users' limit orders are shown in the order book. Use a market order to trade at the best available price, or a limit order to name your own price. Take Profit and Stop Loss sell your shares automatically.
What you can lose
The most you can lose is what you paid. Prediction markets have no leverage and no liquidation: a price drop can't take more than you put in.
How markets are resolved
Each market's rules name the source that decides the result, for example an official announcement or a published price. After the event, the result is checked against that source before payouts. If the rules call it a draw, Yes and No each pay $0.50. How markets are created, resolved and disputed →
Fees
A trading fee is charged when your order fills. Base rates on prediction markets are 0.25% for maker orders and 0.5% for taker orders; your rate is shown in the order form before you confirm. Fees →
Prediction markets and futures
| Prediction markets | Futures | |
|---|---|---|
| What you trade | The outcome of an event | The price of an asset |
| Price | 1¢–99¢, read as a probability | The asset's market price |
| Leverage | None | Up to 100x |
| Most you can lose | What you paid | Your entire margin |
| When it ends | When the event resolves | When you close or are liquidated |