Question 1

What are AI prediction markets?

Accepted Answer

Markets where you trade on the outcome of AI events. Each price, from 1¢ to 99¢, is the crowd's estimate of the chance an outcome happens.

Question 2

Which AI markets are most active right now?

Accepted Answer

By 24-hour volume on November 11: How Much Will Avengers: Doomsday Gross at the US Box Office by December 31, 2026?; Will 'Grand Theft Auto VI' be released before December 1, 2026?; Will South Korea officially announce a government plan with a stated total investment target exceeding $1 Trillion USD for AI & Semiconductors by December 31, 2027?

Question 3

What kinds of AI markets can I trade?

Accepted Answer

Model releases, such as whether a lab ships a named model by a date; leaderboard races, such as which company has the top model at the end of the month; company events like funding rounds, IPOs, acquisitions and leadership changes; and regulation, such as new AI laws, fines and court rulings.

Question 4

Which source decides an AI market?

Accepted Answer

The one named in the rules: the company's official announcement or release notes for launches, a named public leaderboard read at a set time for ranking markets, and official filings or government publications for funding, IPOs and regulation. Rumours, leaks and screenshots don't count, even if they later turn out to be true.

Question 5

What counts as a model “release”?

Accepted Answer

Usually the model has to be publicly available, for example in an app, through an API or as an open beta. An announcement, a demo, a closed beta or a waitlist for selected users often doesn't count. The rules also say which name counts: a smaller or intermediate version, such as a “mini” or “.5” model, may not count for a market on the flagship model.

Question 6

When is a leaderboard market checked?

Accepted Answer

Leaderboards change daily, so the rules fix one moment: the date, time and time zone at which the named leaderboard and view are read. They also say how a tie for first place is broken, for example by score and then by another stated criterion.

Question 7

What if the leaderboard is offline or a launch is delayed?

Accepted Answer

Before a market opens, Outpoll checks that its rules say what happens if the source is unavailable. They also say whether a delayed, staged or region-limited launch counts. Rules are never changed after the fact to produce a preferred result.

Question 8

How are AI markets resolved?

Accepted Answer

Each market's rules name the source that decides the result. After the event the result is checked against it, winning shares pay $1, and the balance is usually credited within 4–72 hours. If you think a result is wrong, write to support within 24 hours after settlement.

Question 9

How much can I win or lose?

Accepted Answer

Each winning share pays $1 in USDC and each losing share pays $0. If the rules call a draw, every share pays $0.50. The most you can lose is what you paid: prediction markets have no leverage and no liquidation. Base trading fees are 0.25% for maker and 0.5% for taker orders, and your rate is shown in the order form before you confirm.

Question 10

Can I sell before the market closes?

Accepted Answer

Yes. You can sell at the current price at any time while the market is open. Check the liquidity in the order book first: with few orders near the price, a large sale can fill at a worse average price.

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