Crypto prediction markets
Crypto prediction markets let you trade on where Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and other coins will be on a set date, and on events like ETF decisions, token launches and exchange listings. Each price is the crowd's live estimate of the chance: 35¢ on “BTC above $150,000 by Dec 31” means traders see about a 35% chance. Prices change with every trade, and each market's rules name the price source used to settle it.
About Crypto odds
How crypto odds are set
Nobody at Outpoll sets these numbers. Traders buy Yes when they think the chance is higher than the price and sell when they think it is lower, and the price settles where they agree. A price target market reacts to the spot price, to volatility and to the time left: the closer the deadline, the faster prices move toward 0¢ or 99¢.
Crypto markets vs analyst forecasts
An analyst's price target is one person's view with no cost for being wrong. A market price combines everyone trading it, and each of them pays for a bad call. That is why it moves within minutes of a large liquidation, an ETF filing or a macro headline.
What moves these markets
Spot price and volatility, US interest rate expectations, ETF flows, regulatory news, exchange events and large on-chain transfers.