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Crypto prediction markets

Crypto prediction markets let you trade on where Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and other coins will be on a set date, and on events like ETF decisions, token launches and exchange listings. Each price is the crowd's live estimate of the chance: 35¢ on “BTC above $150,000 by Dec 31” means traders see about a 35% chance. Prices change with every trade, and each market's rules name the price source used to settle it.

About Crypto odds

How crypto odds are set

Nobody at Outpoll sets these numbers. Traders buy Yes when they think the chance is higher than the price and sell when they think it is lower, and the price settles where they agree. A price target market reacts to the spot price, to volatility and to the time left: the closer the deadline, the faster prices move toward 0¢ or 99¢.

Crypto markets vs analyst forecasts

An analyst's price target is one person's view with no cost for being wrong. A market price combines everyone trading it, and each of them pays for a bad call. That is why it moves within minutes of a large liquidation, an ETF filing or a macro headline.

What moves these markets

Spot price and volatility, US interest rate expectations, ETF flows, regulatory news, exchange events and large on-chain transfers.

Crypto markets FAQ

What are Crypto prediction markets?
Markets where you trade on the outcome of Crypto events. Each price, from 1¢ to 99¢, is the crowd's estimate of the chance an outcome happens.
Which Crypto markets are most active right now?
What kinds of crypto markets can I trade?
Most crypto markets use one of a few formats. Above or below: will a coin be over a price at a set moment. Price range: which band the price ends in. Hit price: will the price touch a level at any time before the deadline. Up or down: will the price be higher at the end of a period than at the start. There are also event markets on ETF decisions, token launches, exchange listings and network upgrades.
Which price is used to settle a crypto market?
The one named in the market's rules: a specific trading pair on a named exchange, such as BTC/USDT, or a published price index, read at a stated time. Prices from other exchanges, pairs or aggregators don't count, even if they briefly crossed the level. Before you trade, open the rules and check the source, the pair and which reading is used.
What is the difference between “hit” and “above” markets?
A hit market resolves Yes as soon as the price reaches the level at any moment in the window, so a short spike is enough. An above market looks at one value at one moment, usually the deadline, so a spike earlier in the day doesn't count. The same coin and level can have very different odds in the two formats.
When does a crypto market close, and in which time zone?
Every market states its closing date, time and time zone in the rules, and the price is read at exactly that moment. Crypto trades around the clock, so markets aren't tied to exchange opening hours. Check the time zone carefully: midnight in New York is 5:00 the next morning in London.
What if the price source is down or an event is delayed?
Before a market opens, Outpoll checks that its rules say what happens if the source is unavailable. If an ETF decision, a token launch or a listing is postponed, the rules decide whether settlement is delayed, cancelled or voided. Rules are never changed after the fact to produce a preferred result.
How are Crypto markets resolved?
Each market's rules name the source that decides the result. After the event the result is checked against it, winning shares pay $1, and the balance is usually credited within 4–72 hours. If you think a result is wrong, write to support within 24 hours after settlement. How markets are resolved →
How much can I win or lose?
Each winning share pays $1 in USDC and each losing share pays $0. If the rules call a draw, every share pays $0.50. The most you can lose is what you paid: prediction markets have no leverage and no liquidation. Base trading fees are 0.25% for maker and 0.5% for taker orders, and your rate is shown in the order form before you confirm.
Can I sell before the market closes?
Yes. You can sell at the current price at any time while the market is open. Check the liquidity in the order book first: with few orders near the price, a large sale can fill at a worse average price.