Question 1

What are Politics prediction markets?

Accepted Answer

Markets where you trade on the outcome of Politics events. Each price, from 1¢ to 99¢, is the crowd's estimate of the chance an outcome happens.

Question 2

Which Politics markets are most active right now?

Accepted Answer

By 24-hour volume on November 11: Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel until at least December 31, 2026?; Will FIFA initiate a formal process to suspend the Israel Football Association by December 31, 2026?; Who wins French presidential election?

Question 3

What kinds of politics markets can I trade?

Accepted Answer

Election winners, from national leaders to party primaries; which party controls a parliament or chamber; vote shares and margins; resignations, appointments and leadership changes; votes on laws and referendums; and international events such as summits, sanctions, ceasefires and court rulings.

Question 4

Which source decides an election market?

Accepted Answer

The one named in the rules. Usually that is the official result from the electoral authority, or a call by named news organisations when the rules allow an early result. Some markets wait for certified results, which can come weeks after election day. The source is fixed before the market opens.

Question 5

Is “wins the election” the same as “takes office”?

Accepted Answer

No, and the two can resolve differently. A market on who wins follows the declared or certified result. A market on who takes office follows who is actually sworn in, which also covers a winner who withdraws, is disqualified or is replaced after the vote. Read the question and the rules to see which one you are trading.

Question 6

When does a politics market resolve?

Accepted Answer

Not always on election night. Trading can close when voting ends while the market waits for the source in its rules: a media call, official results or certification. Recounts, runoffs and legal challenges can add days or weeks, and balances are credited once the result is confirmed.

Question 7

What if a result is contested or a candidate withdraws?

Accepted Answer

The market's rules cover it. They say whether a recount keeps the market open, what happens if a candidate withdraws or is replaced, and when settlement is delayed, cancelled or voided. If the rules call it a draw, Yes and No each pay $0.50.

Question 8

How are Politics markets resolved?

Accepted Answer

Each market's rules name the source that decides the result. After the event the result is checked against it, winning shares pay $1, and the balance is usually credited within 4–72 hours. If you think a result is wrong, write to support within 24 hours after settlement.

Question 9

How much can I win or lose?

Accepted Answer

Each winning share pays $1 in USDC and each losing share pays $0. If the rules call a draw, every share pays $0.50. The most you can lose is what you paid: prediction markets have no leverage and no liquidation. Base trading fees are 0.25% for maker and 0.5% for taker orders, and your rate is shown in the order form before you confirm.

Question 10

Can I sell before the market closes?

Accepted Answer

Yes. You can sell at the current price at any time while the market is open. Check the liquidity in the order book first: with few orders near the price, a large sale can fill at a worse average price.

Politics prediction markets

About Politics odds

How election odds are set

Prediction markets vs polls

What moves these markets

Politics markets FAQ