US recession by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any of the following conditions are met between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026:

Path A (Official Call): The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee officially announces that a peak in economic activity occurred in 2025 or 2026, marking the start of a recession.

Path B (Technical Recession): The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports at least two consecutive quarters of negative Real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) occurring within the 2025–2026 period.

If none of these conditions are met by the time of the "Final Resolution Date," the market will resolve to "No".

The market will be settled based on data from:

NBER: nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating BEA: bea.gov (GDP releases)