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Will a major AI company release a new flagship large language model (LLM) to the general public by year-end 2026? image

Will a major AI company release a new flagship large language model (LLM) to the general public by year-end 2026?

End 31-DEC-2026
8 News
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Rules Summary

Resolves YES if Google (e.g., a new major version beyond Gemini Ultra), OpenAI (e.g., GPT-5), Anthropic (e.g., Claude 4), or Meta (e.g., Llama 4) publicly announces and makes generally available a new flagship large language model (LLM) to the general public or through widely accessible developer APIs by December 31, 2026. The new model must be presented as a significant generational upgrade to their existing flagship models. Resolves NO if no such release from these companies occurs by the deadline. Announcement of research papers or limited private access will not qualify as a public release.

Will Google release Gemini 2.0 Ultra as a generally available model before December 31, 2026?

Will Google release Gemini 2.0 Ultra as a generally available model before December 31, 2026?

Ends 31-DEC-2026
55%
Google releases Gemini 2.0 Ultra
Will OpenAI release a new foundational LLM (GPT-5.7 or higher) before January 1, 2027?

Will OpenAI release a new foundational LLM (GPT-5.7 or higher) before January 1, 2027?

Ends 01-JAN-2027
65%
OpenAI releases GPT-5.7+
Will Microsoft announce a new significant equity investment in OpenAI (exceeding $5 billion) or an acquisition of OpenAI before December 31, 2026?

Will Microsoft announce a new significant equity investment in OpenAI (exceeding $5 billion) or an acquisition of OpenAI before December 31, 2026?

Ends 31-DEC-2026
70%
Yes
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