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Will Microsoft announce a new significant equity investment in OpenAI (exceeding $5 billion) or an acquisition of OpenAI before December 31, 2026? image

Will Microsoft announce a new significant equity investment in OpenAI (exceeding $5 billion) or an acquisition of OpenAI before December 31, 2026?

End 31-DEC-2026
10 News
Outcome
% Chance

Rules Summary

Resolves YES if Microsoft or OpenAI issues an official press release or makes a regulatory filing (e.g., SEC filing) announcing a new equity investment by Microsoft in OpenAI that is explicitly stated to be greater than $5 billion USD, or an outright acquisition of OpenAI by Microsoft, before December 31, 2026, 23:59:00Z. This must be a new investment or acquisition, not a restatement or revaluation of existing stakes. Confirmation by major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Reuters) citing official sources will be accepted. Resolves NO otherwise.

Will OpenAI officially confirm accepting an investment or stake from the US government (or a US government-controlled entity) by December 31, 2026?

Will OpenAI officially confirm accepting an investment or stake from the US government (or a US government-controlled entity) by December 31, 2026?

Ends 31-DEC-2026
55%
OpenAI accepts US government stake
Will OpenAI release a new foundational LLM (GPT-5.7 or higher) before January 1, 2027?

Will OpenAI release a new foundational LLM (GPT-5.7 or higher) before January 1, 2027?

Ends 01-JAN-2027
65%
OpenAI releases GPT-5.7+
Will Apple's lawsuit against OpenAI be settled or receive a preliminary court ruling by January 31, 2027?

Will Apple's lawsuit against OpenAI be settled or receive a preliminary court ruling by January 31, 2027?

Ends 31-JAN-2027
55%
Lawsuit settled or preliminary ruling
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