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Will Microsoft announce a new significant equity investment in OpenAI (exceeding $5 billion) or an acquisition of OpenAI before December 31, 2026? image

Will Microsoft announce a new significant equity investment in OpenAI (exceeding $5 billion) or an acquisition of OpenAI before December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026
10 news
Outcome
% Chance

Rules Summary

Resolves YES if Microsoft or OpenAI issues an official press release or makes a regulatory filing (e.g., SEC filing) announcing a new equity investment by Microsoft in OpenAI that is explicitly stated to be greater than $5 billion USD, or an outright acquisition of OpenAI by Microsoft, before December 31, 2026, 23:59:00Z. This must be a new investment or acquisition, not a restatement or revaluation of existing stakes. Confirmation by major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Reuters) citing official sources will be accepted. Resolves NO otherwise.

How markets are resolved and disputed →
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Will OpenAI officially confirm accepting an investment or stake from the US government (or a US government-controlled entity) by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026
54%
OpenAI accepts US government stake
Will OpenAI release a new foundational LLM (GPT-5.7 or higher) before January 1, 2027?

Will OpenAI release a new foundational LLM (GPT-5.7 or higher) before January 1, 2027?

Ends Jan 01, 2027
100%
OpenAI releases GPT-5.7+
Will Apple's lawsuit against OpenAI be settled or receive a preliminary court ruling by January 31, 2027?

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Ends Jan 31, 2027
54%
Lawsuit settled or preliminary ruling
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