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US Unemployment Rate 4.5% in November? image

US Unemployment Rate 4.5% in November?

Ends Dec 04, 2026
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Rules Summary

Resolves YES if the seasonally adjusted US unemployment rate (U-3) for November 2026 is reported as 4.5% or higher in the initial Employment Situation report, as officially published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on bls.gov on December 4, 2026. Resolves NO if the rate is reported below 4.5%. If the official report for November 2026 is not published on bls.gov by 23:59 UTC on December 4, 2026, all outcomes resolve NO.

Will the US unemployment rate (U3) exceed 4.5% at any point in Q3 2026?

Will the US unemployment rate (U3) exceed 4.5% at any point in Q3 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026
0%
US unemployment rate exceeds 4.5%
US CPI: Nov 2026 inflation rise vs Oct?

US CPI: Nov 2026 inflation rise vs Oct?

Ends Dec 10, 2026
50%
November CPI rate increases
US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026
$95 Vol.
45%
US recession by end of 2026?
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