How many distinct European capital cities will record their highest ever daily temperature in July 2026?

Ended 31-JUL-2026

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This event has concludedThe market has been resolved and your position has been settled. Winning shares were settled at $1 per share, losing shares at $0 per share. A payout will be reflected in your account shortly.

Result

0-2 Cities won this market.

Trading closed on July 31, 2026. Winning shares paid $1 each; the outcome was determined by the rules summary below.

Outcome

% Chance

0-2 Cities$0 Vol.

Yes

3-5 Cities$0 Vol.

9+ Cities$0 Vol.

6-8 Cities$0 Vol.

Rules Summary

Resolves to the outcome corresponding to the total number of distinct European capital cities that officially record their highest-ever daily temperature during July 2026. Data will be sourced from official national meteorological agencies for each capital city (e.g., Met Office for London, Météo-France for Paris, DWD for Berlin, Servizio Meteorologico for Rome, AEMET for Madrid, etc.) and cross-referenced with at least two major international weather reporting services (e.g., WMO, AccuWeather, or similar reliable sources) to confirm 'highest-ever daily temperature.' Cities considered are the capital cities of the 44 UN member states fully or partially in Europe. If there is a dispute in data, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) records will take precedence. If no data is available or verifiable for a significant number of capitals, the market may be cancelled.