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Mediadores buscan evitar una guerra entre Afganistán y Pakistán
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El frágil alto al fuego mediado entre el régimen talibán de Afganistán y Pakistán se balancea al borde del colapso total, un hilo diplomático tensionado hasta su límite absoluto por una devastadora ola de ataques suicidas dentro de Pakistán y las subsiguientes y muy disputadas afirmaciones de ataques de drones de represalia transfronterizos el pasado martes. Esta escalada no es una escaramuza aislada, sino el último temblor violento a lo largo de una frontera históricamente cargada, la Línea Durand, una reliquia de la era colonial nunca reconocida formalmente por ningún gobierno afgano y un punto de conflicto perpetuo. Con tanto Islamabad como el gobierno liderado por los talibanes en Kabul prometiendo públicamente venganza, el cálculo de riesgos apunta hacia una espiral rápida y descontrolada hacia una guerra convencional más amplia, un escenario que los mediadores regionales, desde Qatar y Turquía hasta Irán y Rusia, trabajan desesperadamente para evitar dentro de una ventana de oportunidad alarmantemente estrecha. Los ataques suicidas, reivindicados por los Talibanes Pakistani (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan o TTP), que Islamabad afirma opera desde santuarios en Afganistán, representan una amenaza central a la seguridad nacional que el ejército pakistaní se siente obligado a abordar con fuerza abrumadora, de ahí las incursiones reportadas de drones. Por el contrario, para los talibanes, cualquier violación de la soberanía afgana, especialmente por su poderoso vecino, es un desafío existencial que no pueden verse tolerando sin una severa pérdida de credibilidad y prestigio entre su propia base de línea dura. Los propios mediadores traen agendas complejas y a menudo contrapuestas a la mesa: Qatar, con su larga historia de albergar oficinas políticas talibanes, ejerce un acceso diplomático único pero un poder coercitivo limitado; Turquía busca expandir su influencia en el mundo musulmán mediante la resolución de conflictos; Irán teme tanto una crisis de refugiados como una mayor inestabilidad en su frontera oriental; y Rusia ve el caos como una oportunidad para disminuir la influencia estadounidense en la región y presentarse como un poder intermediario global. Los analistas que monitorean la situación advierten que un conflicto a gran escala tendría consecuencias humanitarias catastróficas, desplazando a cientos de miles en una región que ya lidia con una grave inseguridad alimentaria, mientras potencialmente atraería a actores externos y desestabilizaría todo el corredor de Asia Central. El fracaso de esta iniciativa diplomática no significaría meramente un regreso a duelos de artillería de ojo por ojo; señalaría el desmoronamiento definitivo de un precario orden regional establecido después de la retirada estadounidense, sumiendo a Asia del Sur en un nuevo y peligrosamente impredecible capítulo de guerra prolongada.
hace 4 meses
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That timing would coincide with the US midterm elections. 6 months of war would guarantee victory for the Democratic Party, turn Trump into a lame duck, and effectively eliminate https://t.co/AzYJX5ML8x
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Finally, some thoughtful people are beginning to understand that the presence of an American base is not protection, but a risk factor. If you want to be independent, you need to have your own strong army
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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran is prepared to fight for at least 6 months. That timing would coincide with the US midterm elections. 6 months of war would guarantee victory for the Democratic Party, turn Trump into a lame duck, and effectively eliminate
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran is prepared to fight for at least 6 months.

That timing would coincide with the US midterm elections. 6 months of war would guarantee victory for the Democratic Party, turn Trump into a lame duck, and effectively eliminate https://t.co/AzYJX5ML8x
That’s exactly how a war would break out between the U.S. and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other side
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It’s amusing, but at the same time, it’s quite sad
It’s amusing, but at the same time, it’s quite sad https://t.co/Qe0rYJrRSZ
Iran exports more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war began — WSJ. UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia - next time think with your heads, when deciding whether to host US military bases
If desalination provides only about 3% of #Iran’s water supply, a fair question arises: why risk opening a regional Pandora’s box by targeting such infrastructure? If one side treats these facilities as legitimate targets, the precedent inevitably invites others to do the same.
If desalination provides only about 3% of #Iran’s water supply, a fair question arises: why risk opening a regional Pandora’s box by targeting such infrastructure? If one side treats these facilities as legitimate targets, the precedent inevitably invites others to do the same. https://t.co/twUiPFVsvj
Finally, some thoughtful people are beginning to understand that the presence of an American base is not protection, but a risk factor. If you want to be independent, you need to have your own strong army
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