Houston left for dead in September now nobody wants them in January

2 days ago7 min read

The narrative arc of the 2023 Houston Texans is one for the football analytics textbooks, a case study in how a team’s underlying metrics can sometimes scream a different story than the early-season win-loss column. Back in September, after an 0-3 start that featured a sputtering offense and a defense still learning DeMeco Ryans’ system, the advanced stats community had already begun to spot green shoots.The efficiency numbers, particularly on defense in key early-down situations, weren’t those of a doormat. Seeing Davis Mills re-enter the fray in Week 18 to close out a 38-30 win over the Indianapolis Colts wasn’t just a nostalgic bookend; it was a stark reminder of the foundation he and that resilient defense provided when the season threatened to spiral.That stretch, where the Texans played competitive, low-margin football, was the critical incubation period for Ryans’ culture. It’s reminiscent of how a young coach like Sean McVay stabilized the Rams in his first year, focusing on process over immediate results, laying a schematic and psychological groundwork that pays compound interest later in the season.The nine-game win streak that followed wasn’t a fluke; it was the convergence of that foundational toughness with the explosive talent of C. J.Stroud. Statistically, Stroud’s rookie season ranks among the all-time greats, not just in volume but in efficiency under pressure, a metric where he consistently ranked in the top five throughout the year.This brings us to the January calculus, where every weakness is magnified. The running game, which languished in the bottom third of the league in yards per carry, is the obvious concern.Playoff football historically constricts the field; defenses will dare Houston to run, loading up to stop the pass and testing whether an offensive line, patched together due to injuries, can generate push in critical short-yardage situations. The remarkable stat of three consecutive games without allowing a sack is a testament to Stroud’s lightning-quick processing and the line’s communication, but playoff coordinators like Baltimore’s Mike Macdonald or Kansas City’s Steve Spagnuolo will design complex, disguised pressures that haven’t been on film.The deep-ball connection with rookie receiver Riley Leonard adds a terrifying vertical dimension, but its sustainability against elite cornerbacks in single-high safety looks is the next test. Perhaps the most fascinating analytical subplot, however, is the silent value of kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn.In the pressurized environment of the postseason, where drive sustainability often plummets, a weapon like Fairbairn—who was a perfect 6-for-6 against Indy—can be the difference between an early exit and a deep run. Think of the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals, whose run to the Super Bowl was often fueled by Evan McPherson’s clutch leg in games where their offense stalled.

#Houston Texans

#NFL playoffs

#C.J. Stroud

#DeMeco Ryans

#team turnaround

#featured