Outpoll Weekly Recap: Other (May 18 – 24, 2026)

22 hours ago7 min read

This week in the wide-open Other category, prediction markets threw up a few genuine curveballs that kept even the most seasoned bettors refreshing their screens. The biggest mover was the sudden surge in odds around the so-called “Apophis II” asteroid flyby scheduled for 2029, with a fringe group of traders driving probability estimates from 0.2% to nearly 4% after a series of unverified amateur telescope readings went viral on astro-twitter. The sharp spike didn’t last long – NASA released a calm but firm statement by Wednesday reaffirming a zero-impact trajectory, and the market corrected just as fast – but it showed how quickly a niche cosmic event can capture the speculative imagination when data is murky and fear spreads faster than light.Over in the weird-and-wonderful corner, the “First Contact” contract (which pays out if a verified extraterrestrial signal is detected before 2030) saw a quiet but persistent rise, climbing from 1. 8% to 2.3% after the SETI institute announced a new deep-space listening campaign funded by a private consortium. Meanwhile, the “Lab-Grown Meat Goes Mainstream” contract finally broke the 50% barrier for the first time, following news that a fast-food chain with over 5,000 outlets had signed a supply deal with a cultivated-meat startup.This one feels like a genuine inflection point: consumer sentiment on synthetic proteins has softened in polls, but the infrastructure is quietly building. Also trending was the “Queen Elizabeth II Memorial Statue Completion” contract, which dipped after heritage groups raised objections about the proposed London location, though completion odds for 2027 remain above 70%.On the lighter side, the “Bigfoot DNA Confirmed” contract jumped briefly after a furry hoax involving a bear costume and a thermal drone circulated on TikTok, before crashing back to baseline. If you’re looking for a sleeper pick, keep an eye on the “Commercial Space Station First Crew” contract; odds have crept up to 35% after a successful uncrewed docking by a private station module this past Thursday. The lesson from this week’s movements is clear: in the Other category, where narratives shift on a dime and mainstream media rarely bothers to fact-check quickly, there’s real edge for those who can read the room – preferably before the room reads the same Wikipedia page you just did.

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22 hours ago

Outpoll Weekly Recap: Other (May 18 – 24, 2026)