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Why the Bears will or won’t win vs. Steelers in Week 12
Week 12 arrives with the Chicago Bears, improbably perched atop the NFC North at 7-3, facing a familiar specter in a new uniform: Aaron Rodgers, now quarterbacking the 6-4 Pittsburgh Steelers. The narrative here is rich with historical weight and statistical intrigue, a classic gridiron drama playing out at Soldier Field.Let's be clear from the outset: the Bears are the more complete, more consistent football team on paper. Their journey from an 0-2 start to division leaders has been a masterclass in grinding out victories, a testament to Head Coach Ben Johnson's system that thrives in the pressurized crucible of one-score games.In 2025, the Bears have turned these nail-biters into an art form, their league-best turnover margin of +11 acting as their primary weapon. They don't blow teams out; they suffocate them with opportunistic defense and methodical, mistake-free offense.This plays directly into their strengths against a Steelers squad that, while resilient under the perpetually. 500-or-better Mike Tomlin, has shown alarming volatility.Their early-season flashes of top-tier prowess have given way to recent performances that suggest a team clinging to contention rather than commanding it. The pivotal variable, the one that tilts the entire analytical model on its axis, is the health and legacy of Aaron Rodgers.Statistically, Rodgers' career against Chicago is a lopsided epic worthy of its own Hall of Wing exhibit; the Bears have defeated him merely five times in nearly two decades. Even in the twilight of his football years, his superpower remains an almost supernatural ability to protect the football.His career interception rate of 1. 4% is legendary, a stark contrast to the ball-hawking identity of this 2025 Bears defense.If Rodgers plays, even at less than 100%, he presents a philosophical challenge: can a defense that feasts on mistakes conquer a quarterback who simply does not provide them? This isn't just another game; it's Rodgers' final scheduled appearance at Soldier Field, a stage set for one last heroic chapter in his personal rivalry with the city of Chicago. The motivation for him will be palpable, a dangerous intangible that analytics struggles to quantify.Compounding this is a devastating injury crisis for the Bears' defense, which will be without its entire starting linebacker corps—Tremaine Edmunds, T. J.Edwards, and Noah Sewell. This creates a glaring vulnerability over the middle of the field, a seam that a veteran savant like Rodgers will be salivating to exploit with quick slants and check-downs to his running backs.So, while the cold, hard stats favor the Bears—their superior record, their defensive efficiency, their comfort in close games—the ghost of Rodgers past and present looms large. The game will likely hinge on a single, critical possession in the fourth quarter.If the Bears' defensive front can generate pressure and force one uncharacteristic error, they will validate their status as legitimate contenders. But if Rodgers operates with his customary surgical precision, dissecting a depleted second level, he will once again prove that some rivalries are defined not by rosters or records, but by the indomitable will of a single player writing the final lines of his story.
#editorial picks news
#Chicago Bears
#Pittsburgh Steelers
#Week 12
#NFL
#Aaron Rodgers
#injuries
#playoff race
#turnover margin
