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Kyle Pitts start or sit: Week 12 fantasy football advice
The Atlanta Falcons' 2025 campaign has devolved into a full-blown catastrophe, a five-alarm fire raging through what was once a promising season, and their Week 12 NFC South clash with the New Orleans Saints feels less like a rivalry game and more like a wake. That 30-27 overtime loss to the Panthers last week wasn't just another defeat; it was the final, brutal nail in the coffin, extinguishing any flickering hope of a playoff run and leaving the franchise's offensive core in tatters.The catastrophic blow, a partially torn ACL for rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. , thrusts the veteran Kirk Cousins back into the spotlight for the remainder of a lost season, a scenario no one in Flowery Branch could have envisioned.Compounding the misery is the knee injury sidelining top wideout Drake London, leaving the Falcons' aerial attack in a state of emergency. This dire situation ostensibly places the burden on enigmatic tight end Kyle Pitts, the former fourth-overall pick whose career has been a masterclass in unfulfilled potential, a player who consistently teases with his physical gifts—a blend of wide receiver speed in a tight end's frame reminiscent of a young Tony Gonzalez—but whose fantasy output has been as reliable as a paper umbrella in a hurricane.Last week's performance was a microcosm of his frustrating five-year tenure: a paltry two catches for 14 yards on three targets, marking his least productive game of the season and the third consecutive week he's been held under 40 receiving yards. While his 75.8% catch rate sits impressively as the second-highest among starting tight ends, that statistic is a hollow victory, a shiny hood ornament on a car that won't start, as it masks his profoundly low impact; he possesses the second-lowest total EPA (Expected Points Added) among his positional peers, meaning his catches simply aren't moving the chains or putting points on the board. The analytics paint a stark picture of a player who is efficient in the short-area game but fails to deliver the explosive, game-changing plays his draft capital demanded.This Sunday, he faces a Saints defense that has been decidedly average against opposing tight ends, surrendering 8. 4 fantasy points per game, a matchup that on paper seems serviceable.However, a deeper dive into the historical data reveals a more troubling trend for Pitts' investors: in seven career games against this bitter division rival, he has been effectively neutralized, averaging a meager 2. 1 receptions and 27.6 yards. He simply doesn't show up in this particular rivalry.The quarterback change from the mobile, strong-armed Penix to the more stationary, precision-based Cousins adds another layer of uncertainty. While Cousins has historically supported productive tight ends, the entire Falcons offensive ecosystem is now compromised, operating without its primary downfield threat in London, which will likely allow the Saints' secondary to key in on Pitts more aggressively.Unless you are absolutely desperate in a deep, tight-end-premium league, scouring the waiver wire for a streamer like Juwan Johnson or Cade Otton is a far wiser strategy. Pitts, for all his perceived upside, remains a fantasy siren song, luring managers with the ghost of what could be, only to leave them stranded on the rocks of single-digit point totals. In a must-win Week 12 for fantasy managers, starting him is a gamble with odds longer than the Falcons' current losing streak.
#fantasy football
#Kyle Pitts
#Atlanta Falcons
#New Orleans Saints
#sit advice
#injuries
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