Outpoll Weekly Recap: Finance (November 24 – 30, 2025)

1 day ago7 min read

The financial world this week felt like a high-stakes tug-of-war between the old guard and the new frontier, with traditional markets nervously eyeing the Fed while crypto assets staged a defiant rally. The S&P 500 closed the week essentially flat, a classic case of 'wait and see' as investors parsed every syllable from the latest FOMC minutes for hints on the 2026 rate path—the consensus? A patient, data-dependent Fed is still the baseline, but the prediction markets are starting to price in a slightly higher probability of a cut by Q2, nudging up from 35% to 42%.The real action, however, was in the digital asset space, where Bitcoin decisively broke through the $75,000 psychological barrier, fueling a 15% weekly surge that dragged the entire crypto complex higher. This wasn't just speculative froth; prediction contracts on major platforms now show a 68% implied probability of a spot Ethereum ETF approval by year-end, a bet turbocharged by whispers of more constructive behind-the-scenes regulator dialogue.Meanwhile, in the fascinating intersection of TradFi and DeFi, we saw real-world asset (RWA) tokenization vault into the spotlight after a major European bank announced a pilot for tokenized treasury bills. This isn't niche experimentation anymore—it's a clear signal that the plumbing of finance is being rewired for efficiency, and prediction markets are loving it, with contracts on 'Total Value of Tokenized RWAs' soaring past $5 billion by mid-2026 now trading at 80% confidence. The narrative is shifting from 'if' to 'when and how,' and this week proved that the most insightful market signals are often found where the legacy system and the blockchain ledger finally start to sync up.

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