Outpoll Weekly Recap: Finance (December 1 – 7, 2025)

1 day ago7 min read

The financial markets entered December with a palpable sense of anticipation, as traders parsed a mixed bag of economic data and central bank signals that left major indices in a state of cautious equilibrium. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded within a tight band, reflecting the market's collective indecision in the face of conflicting narratives.On one hand, a stronger-than-expected jobs report mid-week hinted at persistent economic resilience, momentarily bolstering the dollar and pushing Treasury yields higher as investors recalibrated their expectations for the Federal Reserve's easing timeline. Yet, this momentum was swiftly tempered by softer-than-forecast ISM services data, which revived concerns about a potential growth slowdown in 2026.This classic 'good news is bad news' dynamic played out in real-time across prediction markets, where contracts tied to a Fed rate cut before March 2026 saw volatility spike, ultimately settling with only a modest increase in probability as the week closed. The bond market told a more decisive story, with the yield curve continuing its bear-steepening trend—a move that veteran watchers like Warren Buffett might interpret as the market pricing in both near-term policy firmness and longer-term growth uncertainties.In the corporate arena, earnings surprises from a handful of major fintech firms provided pockets of exuberance, their shares rallying on robust consumer spending data embedded in their quarterly reports, though this failed to ignite a broader sector-wide rally. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank's more dovish-than-anticipated commentary created a stark divergence in monetary policy outlooks between the Fed and its peers, applying subtle downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair and prompting a strategic reshuffling in global currency allocations. As we look to the week ahead, the market's gaze is firmly fixed on the final CPI print of the year, an event that will either validate the current holding pattern or trigger the next significant leg in this prolonged dance between inflation fears and growth hopes.

#Weekly recap