Outpoll Weekly Recap: Finance (June 29 – July 5, 2026)

This week in finance was all about the tug-of-war between resilient corporate earnings and a Federal Reserve that just won’t blink. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.9% gain, but the real action was beneath the surface. Big Tech continued its rally, with Nvidia and Microsoft hitting fresh all-time highs on unshakeable AI demand, while energy stocks got hammered as crude oil slid 4% on fears of a global demand slowdown—China’s manufacturing PMI dipping below 50 for the third straight month spooked the market. Meanwhile, the bond market sent a loud signal: the 2-year Treasury yield jumped 12 basis points to 4.73% after Fed Chair Powell reiterated that rate cuts are still “a ways off,” even as inflation ticks down. That hawkish stance is squeezing regional banks again, and First Republic’s stock took a 7% hit on renewed deposit outflow fears. Over in crypto, Bitcoin bounced around $61,000 after a brief dip below $59K, triggered by a massive leveraged liquidation event on Bybit—but ETF inflows remain surprisingly steady, with BlackRock’s IBIT pulling in another $340 million this week alone, a clear sign that institutional demand isn’t fading. The big story, though, was the U.S. jobs report out Friday: nonfarm payrolls came in at 185,000, just above the 175,000 consensus, but the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, and average hourly earnings cooled to 3.8% year-over-year. That’s the kind of “goldilocks” data that keeps the soft-landing narrative alive—not too hot, not too cold—but don’t pop the champagne yet. Earnings season kicks off next week with JPMorgan and Citigroup; options markets are pricing in a 3% swing on each. Prediction markets on Outpoll are betting 62% that the Fed holds rates steady through September, while the odds of a first cut in November have inched up to 44%. The macro backdrop is a chess match: consumers are still spending on travel and services, but credit card delinquencies are at their highest since 2012, and commercial real estate distress is lurking—office vacancy rates hit 22.5% nationally, a new record. For investors, this isn’t a time to get cute; it’s about quality balance sheets, pricing power, and maybe a little cash on the sidelines to pounce when the next panicked sell-off hits. As Buffett would say, be greedy when others are fearful—but make sure the fear is real first.