NFL Week 13 betting, odds, lines: 5 biggest storylines, including Thanksgiving and Black Friday lines

9 hours ago7 min read3 comments

Alright, let's huddle up and break down the wild betting landscape of NFL Week 13, because if Week 12 taught us anything, it's that the underdogs are absolutely feasting right now. Through Sunday's action, the dogs weren't just barking; they were winning, going a stunning 9-4 against the spread, with the Houston Texans setting the tone by not just covering but winning outright as a 6-point 'dog on Thursday night.Sure, only four of them managed to snag the straight-up victory, but covering is what keeps the lights on for most of us in the betting world, and it completely reshuffles the deck as we head into a holiday-packed slate. The MVP race, which felt wide open just a few weeks ago, has now crystallized into what looks like a coronation tour for the 37-year-old Matthew Stafford.Let's be real, for most of his career, Stafford has been the guy putting up video game numbers for bad Lions teams, never getting a single first-place MVP vote and only making two Pro Bowls. But now, leading the NFC-leading Rams on a historic tear with 25 touchdowns and zero interceptions since Week 3, he's the heavy favorite at -235.It's basically his award to lose, and he's on the verge of joining a seriously exclusive club with Y. A.Tittle and Rich Gannon as the oldest first-time winners. The shift away from Drake Maye, who's sitting at +200 with everyone else at 18-to-1 or longer, has been dramatic, proving that being the QB1 on the NFC's top seed is still the golden ticket for voters.Now, let's talk Thanksgiving, because the oddsmakers are giving us what looks like a fantastic triple-header. The early game is the juiciest, with the Detroit Lions installed as 2.5-point favorites against the Green Bay Packers, a team that absolutely blasted them 27-13 in a game that wasn't even that close back in Week 1. That's a serious revenge narrative in the making.Then you have the main course: the Kansas City Chiefs, who are the only road favorite on the holiday, laying -3. 5 against the Dallas Cowboys in Jerry World, even after Dallas's epic comeback win over the Eagles.This is where the historical data from Action Network gets spicy—favorites have been absolutely dominant on Turkey Day, going 51-9 straight up and 40-20 against the spread since 2004, and road favorites like the Chiefs are an even more ridiculous 25-1 straight up and 20-6 ATS. That's not just a trend; it's a slaughter.And in the nightcap, Joe Burrow's return wasn't enough to move the needle much, as the Bengals are still catching a full touchdown against the Ravens, a team that wins but rarely blows anyone out. Then comes Black Friday, and the line for Bears at Eagles is a real head-scratcher if you're just looking at records.The Eagles' offense is sputtering, they're coming off a soul-crushing loss, and they're facing an 8-3 Bears team. So naturally, Philly is a full 7-point favorite.Wait, what? But for anyone who's been paying attention, it makes perfect sense. The Bears' record is a bit of a mirage; they've only beaten one team above.500 (a tight three-point win over the Steelers), they've won six one-score games, and their point differential for the season is actually negative-three. If you're a true believer in Chicago, you're getting a gift-wrapped bundle of points.Week 12 was also a brutal reminder that even the worst teams in the league can cover massive spreads. The Seattle Seahawks, who were the ATS kings of the NFL at 8-2, ran into the one-win Tennessee Titans and, of course, Tennessee covered.They got down 23-3 and then mounted a classic garbage-time rally to lose 30-24 but beat the 13-point spread. The other two double-digit underdogs, the Giants and Jets, also covered their +14 lines.It's the ultimate lesson in NFL humility: ATS records aren't predictive, oddsmakers adjust, and everyone regresses toward. 500 eventually.Finally, let's check in on the Kansas City Chiefs, who continue to live in this bizarre alternate reality where their 6-5 record doesn't match their futures market position. After beating the Colts, they're now just +475 to win the AFC West (way behind the Broncos at -300) but have the exact same +475 odds to win the entire AFC, making them the conference favorite.They're third in Super Bowl odds at +900, behind only the Rams and Eagles. It's a disconnect that drives their haters absolutely insane, but the market sees the talent and the path, and it's a wild bet to watch as we head into the final stretch of the season.

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