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College Football Playoff odds, picks: Our best bets for Oregon-Indiana, Ole Miss-Miami (FL)
The tectonic plates of college football have shifted, and the new 12-team playoff landscape has delivered a pair of semifinal matchups that feel ripped from a Hollywood script. The dust has settled on a quarterfinal weekend that saw the established order upended, with No.10 Miami (FL) and No. 6 Ole Miss authoring stunning upsets over top-seeded Ohio State and perennial powerhouse Georgia, respectively.Now, as we barrel toward New Year’s Day, the narratives are less about chalk and more about momentum, matchups, and the kind of quarterback play that can make a mockery of any point spread. Let’s dive into the analytics and the intangibles that will decide who advances to the national championship.First, the Sugar Bowl pits Lane Kiffin’s resilient Ole Miss Rebels against Mario Cristobal’s resurgent Miami Hurricanes. The Rebels’ 39-34 victory over Georgia wasn’t just a win; it was a masterclass in offensive line protection and quarterback improvisation.Trinidad Chambliss, the transfer quarterback whose journey mirrors that of Joe Burrow and Cam Ward, didn’t just manage the game—he dominated it, posting a 50% passing success rate against a defense littered with future NFL talent. His background as a high-school point guard isn’t a trivial footnote; it’s the core of his elite field vision and decision-making under duress, a trait his former coach at Ferris State, Tony Annese, directly linked to his basketball pedigree.For Ole Miss to pull another upset, that protection must hold against a Miami defensive front that feasted on Ohio State. The Rebels’ path hinges on neutralizing that pass rush, allowing Chambliss to extend plays and for their running game to punish aggressive looks.Conversely, Miami’s offense, while explosive, has shown a tendency to sputter in sustained-drive situations. If Ole Miss can control the line of scrimmage, they have the balance to cover the +3 spread and potentially win outright.On the other side, the Fiesta Bowl presents a fascinating clash of styles between the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers and the No.5 Oregon Ducks. Indiana’s 38-3 dismantling of Alabama was a statement of defensive dominance and operational efficiency, but their earlier 30-20 road win at Oregon this season provides a critical data point.In that game, Hoosiers quarterback Dante Moore had an uncharacteristically poor performance, yet Indiana still won, overcoming a pick-six. Moore is a vastly improved player now, and Indiana’s formula—a punishing defense coupled with the field-flipping prowess of Australian punter Mitch McCarthy—is designed to suffocate opponents.
#College Football Playoff
#semifinals
#betting picks
#Oregon Ducks
#Indiana Hoosiers
#Ole Miss Rebels
#Miami Hurricanes
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