AFC playoff standings, explained: How Broncos, Patriots, others can clinch No. 1 seed in Week 17

6 days ago7 min read1 comments

With just two weeks left in the 2025 NFL regular season, the AFC playoff picture is a masterclass in high-stakes football calculus, where every yard gained and every point scored carries the weight of an entire offseason. The drama isn't just about who gets in; it’s a fierce, multi-front battle for the conference's crown jewel—the No.1 seed, a prize that grants a precious first-round bye and home-field advantage through the championship gauntlet. As we barrel into Week 17, five teams—the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, and Buffalo Bills—have already punched their postseason tickets, but the strategic chess match for ultimate positioning is far from over.The narrative here is less about survival and more about supremacy, with four franchises still mathematically alive in the race for the top spot, a scenario that injects every remaining game with playoff-level intensity. The Broncos, sitting pretty at 12-3, hold their destiny in their own hands more than any other contender; a win over a Patrick Mahomes-less Kansas City Chiefs, coupled with a specific cascade of losses from the Chargers, Bills, Jaguars, and Patriots, would clinch the No.1 seed this weekend. It’s a tall order, reminiscent of the precise alignments needed for a perfect offensive drive, but Denver's path to at least securing the AFC West is considerably clearer, requiring just a win and a Chargers stumble.For a franchise that hasn't won its division since its 2015 Super Bowl run, clinching that title would be a monumental step back to the league's elite, a testament to a rebuilt identity that echoes the defensive prowess of the Von Miller-led squads of yesteryear. Meanwhile, the Patriots, also at 12-3, cannot secure the top seed this week but can lock down the AFC East with a victory over the New York Jets and some help against Buffalo.Their path to the summit requires winning out and hoping Denver falters, a scenario that would see Bill Belichick’s legendary strategic acumen once again leveraging every possible advantage in the final stretch, much like the meticulous game-planning that defined their dynasty years. Down south, the Jacksonville Jaguars, at 11-4, are in a similar boat, eyeing the AFC South title this week but needing to win out and get losses from both Denver and New England to claim the conference's top spot—a long shot that underscores how competitive the AFC has become.The Los Angeles Chargers, the other 11-4 wild card already in the dance, remain the dark horse in this race; they must win their final two games, including a potentially decisive Week 18 showdown with Denver, and get losses from New England and Jacksonville. Their mathematical survival in the No.

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