- News
- regulation
- Analysis: Market Is Undervaluing the Possibility Cardano (ADA) ETF Is Delayed Until 2026
Analysis: Market Is Undervaluing the Possibility Cardano (ADA) ETF Is Delayed Until 2026
The market's blind optimism about a Cardano ETF approval reveals everything wrong with crypto's altcoin obsession. While Polymarket bettors place 90% odds on ADA getting the regulatory green light by 2025's end, they're dangerously underestimating Washington's dysfunction—a classic case of hopium overriding reality.Let's be clear: the SEC's recent 'fast-track' framework for altcoin ETFs was always regulatory theater, a reluctant concession to political pressure rather than genuine embrace. Now, with a 36% chance of a month-long government shutdown, even this glacial process faces complete paralysis.The SEC's contingency plan keeps just 390 of its 4,200 employees working—none assigned to review new products like the Cardano ETF. This isn't a delay; it's institutional collapse.While ETF issuers can still file paperwork into the void, there's nobody home to read it. The same agency that took years to approve Bitcoin ETFs now expects traders to believe it'll blaze through 90 crypto ETF applications—including ADA's—amid political chaos? Please.Washington's shutdown consensus points to late October resumption at earliest, leaving barely eight working weeks before Christmas stagnation. That's assuming politicians don't break the 35-day shutdown record, which Polymarket traders already price at 31% probability.Meanwhile, the backlog grows: 89 crypto ETFs queued behind halted IPOs, delayed enforcement cases, and traditional finance approvals. Cardano might be high on the list, but the list isn't moving.This exposes altcoiners' fundamental miscalculation: believing regulators care about their 'ETH killer' narratives when Bitcoin remains the only crypto asset with undeniable institutional legitimacy. The 10% 'No' bet on 2025 approval isn't just contrarian—it's the only position acknowledging regulatory reality.When the government flips the lights back on, the SEC won't prioritize speculative altcoins over systemic market stability. That 11% chance of delay? It should be 50%, and anyone who's watched the SEC drag its feet on Bitcoin for a decade knows it.
It’s quiet here...Start the conversation by leaving the first comment.
© 2025 Outpoll Service LTD. All rights reserved.