Cities made a bet on millennials but forgot one key thing

1 day ago7 min read5 comments

The great urban wager of the early 21st century is revealing its fundamental flaw, a demographic miscalculation hidden in plain sight. Cities across the United States, from New York to Austin, made a strategic bet on attracting millennials with the siren call of high-paying jobs, vibrant nightlife, and a culture of consumption, wholeheartedly embracing Richard Florida's 'creative class' theory.This philosophy posited that clustering young, educated professionals would be an economic panacea. Real estate developers, responding to clear market signals, filled skylines with gleaming towers of studios and one-bedroom apartments, perfect for singles and childless couples but utterly inadequate for the next life stage.The single-family homes and spacious townhouses that families traditionally seek were simultaneously choked off by restrictive zoning, creating a perfect storm. The strategy worked brilliantly—until it didn't.As this massive generation now marches into their late 30s and 40s, the biological and social imperative to start families has collided with an urban fabric that never planned for them. The consequences are stark: data from the Economic Innovation Group shows large urban counties lost roughly 8 percent of their under-5 population between 2020 and 2024, a quiet exodus that speaks volumes.In New York City, the flight of families with young children became a central political issue, propelling Zohran Mamdani to the mayor's office on a platform of radical affordability. This is not merely a housing crisis; it is a crisis of community and economic sustainability.When families depart, cities lose their highest earners and most consistent spenders during their peak productive years. The departure is a double blow: it strips the city of mentorship and institutional knowledge while simultaneously creating a vocal deficit in advocacy for better schools, parks, and public transit, thereby making the city even less appealing for the next wave of potential parents.The problem is compounded by the smaller size of Generation Z and the normalization of remote work, which means there is no guaranteed cohort to refill the emptying apartments. The original theory wasn't wrong, but it was tragically short-sighted, failing to account for the need to retain people through their entire life cycle.The resistance to family-friendly development is deeply rooted in a combination of political economy and historical exclusion. Affluent, older homeowners, often past their own child-rearing years, wield disproportionate political power to oppose zoning changes that would allow for more density, fearing impacts on their property values and quiet neighborhoods.As Mildred Warner, a professor of city and regional planning at Cornell University, astutely notes, 'class and race matter in America. ' For decades, exclusionary zoning has been a tool to keep out Black and low-income families, and those patterns persist.The professional culture of urban planning itself is also to blame, with many planners still operating with a mid-century suburban mindset, viewing families as a concern for the periphery, not the urban core. Michael Huling, a senior county planner in Clark County, Nevada, traces this back to anachronistic development priorities that linger today.Beyond culture, a harsh fiscal reality discourages cities from welcoming families: children consume public services, especially education, without contributing tax revenue. State and local governments bear the brunt of K-12 education costs, creating a perverse incentive where cities see school spending as a direct budget burden rather than a critical investment in their future human capital.Warner's research has found that politicians often restrict family housing precisely because they don't want to pay for the schools, ignoring the long-term economic benefits of educating the future workforce. The Manhattan Institute's Robert Verbruggen puts it bluntly: 'Kids don’t pay for themselves while they’re still kids.They pay for themselves later when they grow up and get jobs. ' The ramifications extend beyond city budgets into the most intimate decisions of potential parents.Research from the Institute for Family Studies identifies housing costs as the single biggest factor limiting childbearing goals, surpassing even childcare costs and student debt. A recent study from a University of Toronto economist estimated that rising housing costs since 1990 have led to 11 percent fewer children being born in the US.The lack of suitable space is not just pushing families out; it is preventing them from forming in the first place, a demographic time bomb for the entire nation. There are flickers of change.Some institutional real estate investors are now shunning buildings heavy on small units, worried about high tenant turnover. The 'built-to-rent' boom has demonstrated a viable market for families who rent.Innovators like developer Bobby Fijan are advocating for pragmatic solutions, such as building one-bedroom apartments with a den—a flexible, windowless space usable as an office or nursery—which surveys show is highly preferred by both childless individuals and future parents. This could be a way to work within existing construction footprints to offer more flexibility.However, Warner is skeptical, arguing that such units only delay the inevitable move and that cities need genuine two- and three-bedroom homes. The solution will require a fundamental rethinking of urban priorities, challenging powerful homeowner interests, and making substantial public investments in schools, childcare, and infrastructure.It means shifting from a model that exploits young adults for a transient tax base to one that nurtures families as the bedrock of long-term civic and economic health. The cities that recognize that their survival depends not on who they can attract for a few years, but on who they can convince to stay for a lifetime, will be the ones that thrive.

#urban planning

#housing crisis

#millennials

#family housing

#city economies

#zoning reform

#featured

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