The Guardian view on the nationalist surge: the SNP and Plaid Cymru are making the political weather | Editorial4 days ago7 min read999 comments

The political landscape of the United Kingdom is fracturing along ancient fault lines, with Scotland and Wales marching to a distinctly different cadence than the Westminster establishment. While the London-centric media narrative fixates on the five-party contest between Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, and the Greens, a more profound constitutional realignment is gathering force in the northern and western nations of this union.In Scotland, the Scottish National Party maintains a formidable polling lead, a testament to its enduring political machinery and the potent appeal of independence, a cause that has reshaped the nation's psyche since the devolution era of the late 1990s. Simultaneously, in Wales, Plaid Cymru has executed a remarkable political maneuver, drawing level with the insurgent Reform UK in recent surveys, a development that signals a dramatic reordering of the Welsh political order and threatens to squeeze the traditional UK-wide parties into irrelevance.This nationalist surge is not a fleeting protest vote; it is the culmination of decades of evolving national identity, exacerbated by the political tremors of Brexit and a pervasive sense of economic and cultural neglect from the central government in Whitehall. The forthcoming devolved parliament elections next spring are poised to be a watershed moment, potentially installing nationalist governments in both Edinburgh and Cardiff.For the SNP, this would reinforce its hegemonic status, but for Plaid Cymru, it would represent a spectacular reversal of fortunes, catapulting it into a position of executive power it has long sought. The implications for the UK's constitutional integrity are staggering, echoing historical precedents of state fragmentation across Europe.Political historians might draw parallels to the gradual dissolution of other multi-national states, where regional identities, once suppressed, eventually found powerful political expression. The established UK parties, caught flat-footed between a resurgent English populism and these potent Celtic nationalisms, now face an existential battle for relevance on terrain they no longer control. As these nationalist movements hold their annual conferences, the political weather for the entire British Isles is indeed being forged not in the corridors of Westminster, but in the assembly halls of Holyrood and the Senedd, setting the stage for a period of unprecedented political turmoil and potential constitutional crisis.