Outpoll Weekly Recap: Politics (October 29 – November 5, 2025)

3 hours ago7 min read

This week felt like the final sprint of a high-stakes campaign, with poll numbers swinging like a pendulum and prediction markets reacting to every headline with the volatility of a live debate. The centerpiece was the second presidential debate, a political prizefight where the incumbent landed a solid blow on economic stability, citing a dip in unemployment claims that had prediction markets on Polymarket briefly surging in their favor.But the challenger countered with a surgical strike on foreign policy, hammering the administration's handling of renewed tensions in the South China Sea—a move that resonated with undecided voters and saw their contract price claw back a 5% gain overnight, a clear signal that the electorate is deeply split on America's global posture. Down-ballot, the drama was just as intense, with a surprise retirement announcement from a long-serving Senate lion triggering a free-for-all in a key battleground state; the ensuing primary scramble saw a progressive insurgent's stock rise by 15% after a viral ad buy, a classic case of new media strategy outpacing old political machinery.Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, early results from Germany's snap elections are pointing toward a shaky coalition that could stall EU-wide digital asset regulations, a development that political risk analysts are watching like hawks as it could create a regulatory vacuum for the next twelve months. The week’s data dump—from softening consumer confidence to a spike in manufacturing sentiment in the Midwest—provided the ammunition for these daily political skirmishes, each statistic becoming a talking point in the relentless 24/7 media war.As we head into the final stretch, the map is fluid, the ad spends are breaking records, and the only certainty is that every percentage point shift in the prediction markets now carries the weight of a potential upset. The ground game in the final days will be everything.

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