Outpoll Weekly Recap: Finance (October 6 – 12, 2025)

3 hours ago7 min read

The past week in finance felt like a masterclass in market anticipation, with all eyes locked on the Federal Reserve's minutes for any hint of a policy pivot. The release confirmed what many had feared—a higher-for-longer stance is firmly on the table, sending Treasury yields on another gut-wrenching climb and putting a definitive damper on the equity rally we'd enjoyed.The S&P 500, which had been flirting with new highs, pulled back as rate-sensitive tech stocks bore the brunt of the selling pressure; it was a classic 'don't fight the Fed' moment that had traders scrambling to reprice their risk models. Over in Europe, the story was one of stubborn resilience as inflation data came in hotter than projected, forcing the ECB to mirror the Fed's hawkish tone and further complicating the global growth outlook.Meanwhile, the corporate earnings season kicked off with a mixed bag: the big banks reported solid numbers thanks to a buoyant investment banking division, but forward guidance was notably cautious, citing concerns over consumer credit quality and a potential slowdown in loan growth. In the prediction markets, the most significant movement was a sharp contraction in bets for a pre-2026 rate cut, with the probability nosediving from 65% to just 28% by Friday's close—a stark reassessment of the monetary landscape.The Japanese Yen continued its volatile dance, briefly touching a fresh multi-decade low against the dollar before suspected intervention from the Bank of Japan provided a temporary floor, a move that highlights the growing tension between divergent central bank policies. For investors, the takeaway is clear: the era of cheap money is a distant memory, and navigating this new terrain requires a disciplined focus on quality balance sheets and sustainable cash flows, a principle Warren Buffett would certainly endorse.

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