Outpoll Weekly Recap: Finance (October 29 – November 5, 2025)

3 hours ago7 min read

This past week, the financial markets delivered a masterclass in volatility, with the Federal Reserve's latest policy statement acting as the primary catalyst. As anticipated, the Fed held rates steady, but the real story was buried in the nuanced shift of its forward guidance, subtly hinting at a more patient approach to future hikes—a move that sent Treasury yields on a wild ride, with the 10-year note initially plunging before paring losses as traders digested the still-stubborn core PCE data.Equity markets, ever-sensitive to the cost of capital, staged a sharp relief rally, particularly in the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which clawed back a significant portion of its October declines as megacap earnings, especially from a cloud computing giant, vastly exceeded pessimistic forecasts. Yet, beneath the headline indices, a sectoral rotation was unmistakable; financials lagged on the flatter yield curve narrative, while consumer discretionary stocks surged on resilient holiday spending forecasts.Across the pond, the Bank of England's own hawkish hold provided a stark contrast, reinforcing the dollar's strength and complicating the earnings picture for multinationals. In the prediction markets, contracts on a 'soft landing' scenario saw a notable uptick in probability, now trading at a 65% implied likelihood, a significant rebound from the 48% just a month ago, reflecting a growing, albeit cautious, consensus that the Fed might just engineer the elusive economic slowdown without a major recession. However, the VIX, while retreating from its recent highs, remains elevated, a persistent whisper of the underlying anxiety that this delicate balancing act could still be upended by a single adverse inflation print or a geopolitical shock, reminding every Warren Buffett disciple that the market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long run.

#Weekly recap