Outpoll Weekly Recap: Finance (October 13 – 19, 2025)

3 hours ago7 min read

The past week in finance felt like a masterclass in market anticipation, with all eyes glued to the Federal Reserve's minutes and a fresh batch of inflation data that sent ripples across asset classes. The core narrative was a classic tug-of-war between stubborn inflation prints and the Fed's increasingly hawkish rhetoric, leaving traders to navigate a landscape where every data point was magnified.We saw the S&P 500 churn in a tight range, ultimately ending the week slightly down as bond yields ticked higher on the prospect of 'higher for longer' interest rates; the 10-year Treasury note flirted with 4. 8%, a level that continues to give equity valuations a headache.In corporate news, the banking sector was a notable mover after JPMorgan and Citigroup reported Q3 earnings that beat on the top line but revealed rising provisions for credit losses, a signal that even the giants are battening down the hatches for a potential consumer slowdown. The real action, however, was in prediction markets, where contracts tied to the timing of the first Fed rate cut saw massive volatility—the probability of a cut by March 2025, which was sitting at a cozy 60% just a month ago, has now been slashed to under 30% according to Outpoll's own market data.This recalibration speaks volumes about the shifting consensus on Wall Street, where the 'soft landing' dream is being stress-tested by persistent services inflation and robust employment figures. It’s a environment that would make even Warren Buffett pause for thought, emphasizing the timeless value of looking at hard data over hopeful narratives. As we move into the final quarter, the setup is clear: the market's fate remains inextricably linked to the Fed's next move, and for now, the central bank is holding its cards close to the chest.

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