Outpoll Weekly Recap: Finance (November 3 – 9, 2025)

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The financial markets this week were a masterclass in navigating crosscurrents, with the Federal Reserve's latest policy statement acting as the primary rudder. As anticipated, the Fed held rates steady, but the real story was buried in the revised dot-plot, which now signals a more patient, higher-for-longer trajectory that sent Treasury yields on a renewed ascent.The 10-year note flirted with levels not seen since last quarter, putting immediate pressure on rate-sensitive tech stocks and casting a shadow over the nascent recovery in the housing market. Yet, against this hawkish backdrop, the S&P 500 demonstrated remarkable resilience, buoyed by a stunning earnings beat from a major cloud infrastructure provider that reported surging AI-driven revenue, a clear signal that corporate investment in artificial intelligence is becoming a tangible, profit-driving force impervious to higher borrowing costs.This created a fascinating bifurcation: while the NASDAQ experienced volatility, the Dow Jones found unexpected strength in a rally of industrial and energy stocks, which capitalized on rising geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions that pushed Brent crude above $90 a barrel. Over in prediction markets, the sentiment was equally schizophrenic; contracts predicting a Fed rate cut before Q2 2026 plummeted by over 40%, reflecting a stark reassessment of the inflation fight's timeline, while shares tied to the cloud giant's stock performance saw record volume, with traders effectively betting on AI's deflationary potential to eventually outweigh the Fed's restrictive stance. The week closed with all eyes on the incoming CPI data, setting the stage for a battle between stubborn macroeconomic pressures and the disruptive, deflationary power of technological adoption, a theme that will undoubtedly define the final stretch of 2025.

#Weekly recap