Outpoll Weekly Recap: Finance (November 17 – 23, 2025)

4 hours ago7 min read

This week, the markets delivered a masterclass in volatility, with the Federal Reserve's latest minutes sending a hawkish shiver through trading floors and triggering a sharp recalibration of rate-cut expectations for early 2026. The S&P 500, after flirting with new highs, stumbled mid-week as bond yields spiked, a clear signal that the 'higher for longer' narrative is firmly back on the table, forcing a sector rotation out of growth and into value.Over in Europe, the ECB held its ground, but the persistent stagnation in German manufacturing data has traders betting on a divergent policy path from the Fed, creating a fascinating tug-of-war in the forex markets that saw the dollar flex its muscles. The real story, however, was in the prediction markets, where the odds of a pre-Q2 2026 rate cut plummeted from 65% to a mere 30%, a swing that would make even the most seasoned Buffett disciple pause—it’s a stark reminder that in this environment, patience isn't just a virtue, it's a strategy.Meanwhile, corporate earnings provided a mixed bag; retail giants surprised to the upside with robust consumer spending data, but the tech sector showed its first real signs of fatigue as AI-driven revenue projections faced their first serious reality check from analysts. Looking ahead, all eyes are on the upcoming PCE inflation data; another hot print could cement this new, more cautious market psyche and test the resilience of the current bull run, proving once again that in finance, the only constant is the pendulum swing between greed and fear.

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