Outpoll Weekly Recap: Finance (November 10 – 16, 2025)

3 hours ago7 min read

This week, the financial markets delivered a masterclass in volatility, with the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes sending shockwaves through equity and bond markets alike. The S&P 500 gyrated wildly, ultimately closing the week down 2.3% as the 'higher for longer' narrative on interest rates was firmly cemented by policymakers who expressed lingering concerns over stubborn service-sector inflation. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, that crucial barometer of economic sentiment, pierced through the 4.8% ceiling, a level not seen since late 2022, as traders recalibrated their expectations for any near-term easing. In a classic flight to safety, the U.S. dollar index surged, putting pressure on emerging market currencies and commodities, with gold retreating from its recent highs.Against this turbulent macro backdrop, prediction markets were a hive of activity; contracts on the likelihood of a Fed rate cut before Q2 2026 plummeted from a 45% probability to just 18%, while bets on a recession within the next twelve months saw a significant uptick, with probability surging to 65%. In the corporate sphere, all eyes were on the tech sector's earnings, where a major cloud services provider posted disappointing guidance, triggering a sector-wide sell-off that erased over $200 billion in market cap in a single session.The VIX, Wall Street's 'fear gauge,' spiked above 25, reflecting the heightened anxiety among institutional investors. As Warren Buffett famously opined, 'Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked,' and this week's market action felt like a cautious retreat from the shore, forcing a sober reassessment of risk and reward in a landscape where cheap capital is no longer a given.

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