U.S. employers added 119,000 jobs in delayed September report.

2 days ago7 min read2 comments

The delayed but critical September jobs report finally illuminated the state of the American labor market, revealing that U. S.employers added a surprisingly robust 119,000 jobs, a figure that more than doubled the modest 50,000 gain economists had been bracing for. This data, released seven weeks late due to the federal government shutdown, provided a much-needed beacon for businesses, investors, and Federal Reserve policymakers who had been navigating in the dark, deprived of their primary compass for economic health.However, the headline number tells only part of the story; the unemployment rate ticked up to 4. 4%, its highest point since October 2021, a movement partly driven by a welcome influx of 470,000 individuals re-entering the labor force, not all of whom secured immediate employment.Beneath the surface, the revisions to prior months painted a more nuanced, and somewhat sobering, picture. The previously reported gain of 22,000 jobs in August was starkly revised to a loss of 4,000, with adjustments shaving a total of 33,000 jobs from the summer's totals, a reminder that initial readings are often provisional sketches rather than finished portraits.The sectoral breakdown highlighted the economy's uneven momentum: healthcare and social assistance led the charge with a formidable addition of over 57,000 positions, while restaurants and bars, construction, and retailers contributed a healthy 37,000, 19,000, and 14,000 jobs respectively. Conversely, the manufacturing sector continued its worrying contraction, shedding 6,000 jobs for its fifth consecutive monthly decline, and the federal government itself lost 3,000 positions, marking an eighth straight drop amidst political pressures for cost-cutting.For the inflation watchers at the Federal Reserve, a key metric—average hourly wages—showed a tempered increase of just 0. 2% from August and 3.8% year-over-year, edging closer to the 3. 5% pace they deem compatible with their 2% inflation target.This steady hiring and contained wage growth make a near-term interest rate cut increasingly improbable, a sentiment echoed in the recently released minutes from the Fed's October meeting where many officials were already leaning against such a move. The central bank now finds itself at a familiar crossroads, split between camp one, which views stubbornly high inflation as the paramount threat requiring persistently elevated rates, and camp two, which grows increasingly concerned about sluggish hiring and advocates for supportive rate reductions.This September snapshot gains immense significance as it will be the last comprehensive jobs report the Fed’s Open Market Committee will scrutinize before its pivotal December 9-10 meeting, setting the stage for a high-stakes debate on monetary policy. The broader context remains one of considerable strain, with the job market still wrestling with the lagged effects of the Fed's own high-interest-rate medicine, administered to combat the 2021-2022 inflation spike, and the pervasive uncertainty emanating from former President Trump's campaign for sweeping import taxes.Compounding this is a sobering historical revision from the Labor Department, which recently revealed the economy created 911,000 fewer jobs in the year ending last March than initially thought, drastically lowering the average monthly gain to a mere 71,000. Looking ahead, the data landscape grows murky once more; the Labor Department has confirmed it will not release a full October jobs report, meaning the next clear view of the unemployment rate and comprehensive payroll data won't arrive until the combined October and November report on December 16, leaving markets and policymakers to once again interpret faint signals in the absence of hard light.

#featured

#jobs report

#unemployment rate

#Federal Reserve

#interest rates

#economic data

#labor market

#government shutdown

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