Week 12 NFL odds, picks, predictions: Our 12 NFL best bets, including a play in Cowboys-Eagles

1 day ago7 min read6 comments

Week 12 of the NFL season kicked off with a seismic shock that reverberated through the league, as the Houston Texans, led by the unheralded Davis Mills, engineered a stunning 23-19 upset over the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football. This unexpected result serves as a stark reminder of the NFL's inherent volatility, setting a dramatic stage for a weekend packed with high-stakes divisional clashes and compelling betting narratives.Our team of analysts has meticulously dissected the matchups, identifying a dozen value-driven wagers, starting with a critical examination of Green Bay's Jordan Love. While his stat sheet shows impressive outings against Cincinnati, Carolina, Washington, Dallas, and Pittsburgh, a deeper analytical dive reveals a troubling pattern: those defenses rank 31st, 16th, 29th, 30th, and a league-worst 32nd against the pass, respectively.In his other five contests, against more competent secondaries, Love's production plummeted to an average of just 180 passing yards. Now he faces a Minnesota Vikings unit that surrenders a mere 190.5 yards per game through the air, a top-seven mark in the NFL. Only elite quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts and Jared Goff have managed to crack 230 yards against this disciplined group, making Love's prop of 234.5 passing yards a prime candidate for the under. In Cincinnati, the suspension of Ja'Marr Chase creates a vacuum of targets that Tee Higgins is poised to fill.Historically, Higgins's production has been inconsistent with Chase commanding attention, but with the alpha receiver absent, the offensive calculus shifts dramatically. The New England Patriots' secondary presents a golden opportunity, having allowed the fourth-most completions in the league and an opponent completion rate of 67.6%. This confluence of factors points directly to Higgins seeing a season-high volume, making his reception over/under of 5.5 a compelling play. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions present one of the most reliable trends in modern football: their ferocious response to defeat.Since Week 9 of 2022, the Lions have responded to each of their last 12 regular-season losses with a victory, going a perfect 12-0 both straight up and against the spread. Their average margin of victory in these bounce-back games is a staggering 17.5 points. After a tough loss in Philadelphia, an angry and focused Lions squad returning home to face a 2-8 New York Giants team that has suffered four double-digit losses this season is a recipe for a commanding cover.The Cleveland Browns versus Las Vegas Raiders matchup hinges on quarterback dynamics, with Shedeur Sanders making his first NFL start. Expect a conservative game plan from Cleveland designed to protect their rookie, heavily featuring the run game and standout rookie Quinshon Judkins.This script directly impacts Raiders quarterback Geno Smith, whose pass attempt prop sits at 30. 5.In a game with the week's lowest total (36 points), and considering Smith has only exceeded this number four times this season—often in negative game scripts—the under on his attempts is a logical bet. Furthermore, while Smith leads the league with 13 interceptions, the reduced volume of passes and a favorable matchup against a conservative offense make the plus-money value on him throwing under 0.5 interceptions an intriguing, correlated wager. In Jacksonville, a subtle backfield shift is underway.Rookie Bhayshul Tuten's expanded role in Week 11, particularly in critical red-zone situations following the trade of Tank Bigsby, signals a potential breakout. This mirrors a pattern from offensive coordinator Liam Coen's past, and with Tuten's anytime touchdown prop offering even money, it represents significant value before the market fully adjusts to his increased workload.The marquee NFC East showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys features a fascinating historical trend concerning Dak Prescott. Since Week 7 of the 2019 campaign, Prescott has been intercepted by the Eagles just once—a pick on December 24, 2022.In his last seven meetings with Philadelphia, he has attempted 249 passes with only one finding an Eagles defender. Despite six interceptions this season, they have been confined to only four games, and the Eagles' secondary, while stout, has only managed six picks all year.The data strongly supports betting on Prescott to continue his clean streak against this particular rival. Finally, the San Francisco 49ers, welcoming back key offensive weapons, are poised for a statement win against a Carolina Panthers team whose 6-5 record is buoyed by an unsustainable 5-1 record in one-score games.Analytical models project the 49ers to win by more than a touchdown, and the market's movement from -6. 5 to -7 confirms this assessment, making the Niners laying the points the sharp side of the equation in a week full of analytical edges and compelling narratives.

#featured

#NFL betting

#week 12

#player props

#game predictions

#Jordan Love

#Tee Higgins

#Lions

#Geno Smith