A complete look at the outfield free agent market

5 hours ago7 min read2 comments

Alright, let's break down the outfield free agent market like we're sizing up the NBA trade deadline, because for the Kansas City Royals, this is their version of a blockbuster offseason. We all saw the numbers, right? Royals outfielders combined to hit.225/. 285/.348, which is basically the baseball equivalent of a team shooting 30% from the field all season – it’s just not gonna win you games. They finished with the fifth-fewest runs in baseball, and that outfield production was the worst in the league by a mile, a 73 wRC+ that makes you wince.Sure, they’re hoping Jac Caglianone develops into their version of a rookie sensation, but his debut was rough – second-worst by an outfielder since integration. You can’t just rely on internal growth; you gotta hit the market like a contender hunting for that final piece.So, who’s available? Let’s start with the headliners. Kyle Tucker is the LeBron James of this free agent class – a four-time All-Star who’s still in his prime at 28, coming off a.266/. 377/.464 season with 22 homers and 25 steals. Yeah, he played through a hand fracture, which is like a star playing through a nagging ankle sprain, but he’s the top dog.Speculation is he could land $400 million, with big-market teams like the Yankees and Dodgers circling like sharks. More likely, he gets a ten-year deal around $350 million, but if teams balk, maybe he takes a one-year prove-it deal to bounce back.Then there’s Cody Bellinger, the ultimate enigma – MVP in 2019, non-tendered in 2021, then he bounces back with the Cubs in 2023 only to underwhelm and get traded to the Yankees for nothing. That short right field porch in Yankee Stadium was a gift, as he hit 18 of his 29 homers at home, but on the road, he slumped to.241/. 301/.414. It’s like a player who shines in the playoffs but fades in the regular season – you never know which version you’re getting.I bet he stays with the Yankees on a four- or five-year deal at $22-25 million per year. Trent Grisham is the surprise story – known for his glove in San Diego with two Gold Gloves, but in 2024, he erupted for 34 homers, double his previous high.Unlike Bellinger, he crushed it on the road (. 269/.367/. 537 with 21 homers), though he struggled against lefties (.182). The Yankees gave him a Qualifying Offer, which he might accept, but if he hits the market, the Royals would lose a second-round pick to sign him.That could depress his value, making him a potential steal on a one- or two-year deal around $12-15 million. Harrison Bader had a career year, hitting.277/. 347/.449 with 17 homers – a huge jump from his previous. 239/.284/. 360 line, which was nearly identical to Kyle Isbel’s.He’s always been a Gold Glove defender (won in 2021), and while his offense might regress, he’s still valuable. Expect a two-year deal at $10-14 million per year.Now, for the role players, it’s like filling out your bench with reliable veterans. Randal Grichuk, at 34, was brought in as a lefty masher but hit just.206/. 267/.299 with the Royals, so they declined his option – he’s probably on his last legs. Austin Hays, an All-Star in 2023, regressed in 2024 but rebounded with the Reds, though he’s best in a platoon role given his.319 average against lefties. Max Kepler is a lefty bat who should only face righties, with decent pop but a low average (.235 career), likely landing a one-year deal around $6-7 million. Rob Refsnyder, at 34, has never had 300 at-bats in a season but gets on base with a career 10.7% walk rate and has developed some power in Boston. Austin Slater’s production has declined, but he’s a right-handed bench option who can handle lefties and play all three outfield spots.Mike Yastrzemski was a bright spot for the Royals after they picked him up, hitting. 237/.339/. 500 with nine homers in 50 games – he’s a patient hitter with 15-20 homer power and good defense, maybe seeking a two-year deal but settling for one.Then there’s the positional versatility crew, like utility players who can slot in anywhere. Miguel Andujar, who finished second in Rookie of the Year in 2018 with 27 homers, finally found a spark with the Athletics and Reds, hitting.359 over the final two months – his. 348 BABIP suggests regression, but he puts the ball in play and can play first and third.Willi Castro was an All-Star in 2024 but regressed badly, striking out a lot with modest power, though he stole 33 bases in 2023 and can play multiple positions. Adam Frazier, a 10-year veteran and former All-Star, rejoined the Pirates and revived his bat before the Royals re-acquired him – he hit.282/. 320/.402 down the stretch and is a great clubhouse presence. Dylan Moore, a Gold Glove utility winner in 2024, regressed this summer and was released by the Mariners – he strikes out a ton but has a fair walk rate.Luis Rengifo drew trade interest after solid 2022-23 seasons but battled injuries and regression – he has pop (33 homers in 2022-23) and stole 24 bases in 78 games in 2024, though he’s not a consistent basestealer. Finally, the reclamation projects are like taking a flyer on a former star.Michael Conforto, who faced the Royals in the 2015 World Series with the Mets, has struggled since missing 2022 with a shoulder injury, hitting. 225/.316/. 390 since – he can still draw walks, so a one-year deal might be a gamble.Cedric Mullins, an All-Star in 2021 with a 30/30 season, has regressed each year, posting his first below-average OPS+ in 2024 and hitting. 182 after a trade to the Mets – he’s still an adequate defender with power and speed, but the trend isn’t good.Lane Thomas hit 28 homers in 2023 but was awful after a trade to the Guardians, battling plantar fasciitis and limited to 39 games – if injuries were the cause, he could be a bargain for power and speed. Alex Verdugo started hot with the Braves but slumped and was let go; he was league-average from 2019-2023 but hit.233/. 291/.356 with the Yankees in 2024, and clubhouse issues from his past might limit his chances. For the Royals, this market is a mix of high-stakes bets and depth moves – they need to land at least one impact bat to turn that outfield from a liability into a strength, or else they’ll be stuck in the basement again.

#featured

#Kansas City Royals

#outfield free agents

#MLB offseason

#Kyle Tucker

#Cody Bellinger

#Trent Grisham

#Harrison Bader

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