Poll shows Democrats with biggest generic ballot lead since 2017

1 hour ago7 min read

Democrats have surged to a commanding 14-point advantage over Republicans in the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll, marking their largest lead in this specific survey since November 2017. This isn't just a statistical blip; it's a seismic shockwave through the political landscape, revealing a dramatic erosion of support for the GOP at a critical juncture.The survey of 1,291 registered voters, conducted from November 10-13, 2025, shows 55% would back the Democratic candidate in their House district if the midterms were held today, compared to just 41% for the Republican—a stunning reversal from the dead-even 48-48 split recorded a year prior. This data arrives like a perfectly timed political ad, following a cascade of Democratic victories in off-year elections earlier this month that already had Republican strategists scrambling.The numbers are even more devastating for the GOP when you drill down into the coalition that typically decides elections: independents. A staggering 61% of these crucial voters say they would support the Democratic candidate, dwarfing the mere 28% who would back the Republican.This collapse among the unaffiliated is happening alongside President Trump's approval rating plummeting to the lowest point of his second term, sitting at a precarious 39% among national adults and an anemic 24% approval from independents. While Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, dismisses this as a 'cherry-picked poll' and touts the GOP's offensive posture on fundraising and candidate recruitment, the internal friction for Democrats is still very much real.The party began the year mired in a profound identity and favorability crisis, with a visible leadership vacuum and shut out of power on Capitol Hill. Yet, the electoral map is telling a different story.Progressives and moderates alike successfully centered their recent campaign messaging on the kitchen-table issue of affordability, a strategy that the Trump administration has since clumsily tried to echo. The poll confirms this is the winning message: a commanding 57% of voters said lowering prices should be the administration's top priority, dwarfing the 16% who chose controlling immigration and the 10% focused on reducing crime.For context, while this is a single high-quality poll, composites from FiftyPlusOne and RealClearPolitics show a similar trend, albeit with a narrower Democratic lead of about four to five points. This is a critical distinction, as Democrats held a lead of zero to four points throughout the fall of 2022 and still narrowly lost the House that year.The battlefield is also shifting beneath everyone's feet. Redistricting efforts and the ensuing legal fights in states from Illinois to Texas could dramatically tip the scales, making the national popular vote only one part of a complex, state-by-state war. With a full year until the 2026 midterms, this poll is less a prediction and more a battle cry—a clear signal that the political winds have shifted, and both parties are now racing to adjust their strategies for the long campaign ahead.

#lead focus news

#Democrats

#generic ballot

#midterm elections

#poll

#Trump approval

#independents

#affordability