PoliticsdiplomacyBilateral Relations
US-China Rivalry Expected to Last Decades
The protracted strategic competition between the United States and China, a defining geopolitical reality of our time, is not a transient squall but a structural storm set to rage for decades, a prognosis sharply articulated by former World Trade Organization Director-General Pascal Lamy. This rivalry, which initially erupted in the theater of trade during the Trump administration, is undergoing a profound and dangerous metamorphosis, spreading its tendrils into the weaponization of strategic sectors and the deliberate fracturing of global supply chains.Lamy's characterization of the relationship as 'bumpy' is a masterful understatement, akin to describing the Cold War as a minor diplomatic spat. We are witnessing a fundamental recalibration of the international order, a slow-motion contest for technological supremacy and economic resilience that echoes the great power struggles of the past, albeit with 21st-century tools.The initial tariff wars were merely the opening salvos; the core of the conflict has now shifted to a relentless battle over semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and green technologies. Nations are no longer just competing for market share but for the very architecture of the future, building digital iron curtains and fostering 'friend-shoring' initiatives that threaten to balkanize the global economy into competing blocs.This decoupling, or de-risking as it is often diplomatically framed, carries immense consequences, potentially stifling global growth, inflating costs for consumers, and creating dangerous flashpoints from the Taiwan Strait to the South China Sea. The Biden administration's continuation and intensification of technological export controls, particularly on advanced chips, demonstrates a bipartisan consensus in Washington that views Beijing not as a partner but as a 'pacing challenge.' From Beijing's perspective, this is perceived as a containment strategy designed to thwart its rightful ascent, fueling a nationalist resolve for self-sufficiency under the banner of 'dual circulation. ' The weaponization of interdependence—where once there was mutual economic benefit, now there is mutual vulnerability—is the new normal.Supply chains, once optimized solely for efficiency, are now being re-engineered with national security as the paramount concern, a process that is both costly and irreversible. As Lamy suggests, this adaptation and spread of the rivalry into new domains means we should expect continued friction in cyberspace, competition for critical minerals in Africa and Latin America, and an escalating arms race in space.The decades-long horizon for this contest suggests a world perpetually on the brink of a new cold war, demanding a level of strategic patience and diplomatic finesse from both capitals that has been in short supply. The question is no longer if this rivalry will define the century, but how the international community will navigate its turbulent, and likely enduring, currents.
#US-China rivalry
#geopolitics
#trade
#supply chains
#decades
#featured
