Bitcoin Crash Off the Table as Four-Year Cycle is Dead: Arthur Hayes
The tired old narrative of Bitcoin's four-year cycle—that predictable rhythm of boom and bust tied to halving events—is finally being put to rest, and not a moment too soon for those of us who've long argued that macroeconomic tides, not internal protocol mechanics, are the true kingmakers of crypto valuation. Arthur Hayes, the perpetually insightful chief investment officer at Maelstrom, has driven a stake through the heart of this outdated dogma with a compelling essay titled 'Long Live the King!', asserting with characteristic maximalist conviction that the specter of a catastrophic Bitcoin crash is effectively off the table.Hayes dismantles the simplistic halving-centric model by pointing to the brutal bear markets of 2014, 2018, and 2022, each of which saw BTC's value eviscerated by 70-80% from its peak. The common thread wasn't the halving itself; it was the concurrent monetary tightening in major global economies, the deliberate draining of the fiat liquidity lifeline that had fueled the preceding rallies.This aligns perfectly with a point CoinDesk articulated back in 2023—that the apparent four-year cycle was always a proxy for the ebb and flow of fiat money supply, a shadow cast by the real puppeteers in central banks and treasury departments. As we pass the four-year anniversary marker of this current cycle, the traditional playbook would have traders bracing for the end, for the inevitable downturn that historically began 16 to 18 months post-halving.But Hayes declares this cycle dead, and he's right. Why? Because the monetary conditions that strangled previous bull runs are reversing into a veritable deluge of liquidity.Look at the United States: the Federal Reserve has already initiated an easing cycle, cutting rates by 25 basis points in September 2025 with projections for up to a full percentage point of additional reductions over the next year. This isn't happening in a vacuum; it's the direct result of a political imperative.Newly elected President Trump is openly advocating for running the economy hot, a strategy ostensibly aimed at growing out of the national debt burden and, crucially, lowering housing costs to unlock trillions in trapped home equity. This is a prescription for monetary inflation, pure and simple.Meanwhile, Japan appears poised to re-embrace the ultra-stimulatory ghosts of Abenomics under its new Prime Minister, adding another jet engine to the global liquidity pump. And while China may not unleash the same torrent of stimulus it has in cycles past, its focused campaign to combat deflation means it certainly won't be a net drain on global fiat supplies.This coordinated, or at least concurrent, shift towards easier money across the world's largest economies creates a fundamentally different backdrop than the restrictive environments that killed previous bull markets. The halving, in this context, becomes a secondary character in the play, a supporting actor to the lead role of central bank policy.It reduces the new supply of Bitcoin, yes, but that reduction is now set against a backdrop of explosively expanding fiat supply. This is the core of the Bitcoin maximalist thesis: in a world where central banks are debasing their currencies with abandon, a hard-capped, decentralized, sovereign asset becomes the ultimate lifeboat.The 'number go up' technology isn't just memetic; it's a rational response to irresponsible monetary policy. Hayes’s conclusion is one every Bitcoiner should internalize: listen to what the monetary masters in Washington and Beijing are saying.They are explicitly telling us that money will be made cheaper and more plentiful. In that highly probable future, the logical, perhaps inevitable, outcome is that Bitcoin continues its ascent, leaving the obsolete four-year cycle theory in the dustbin of crypto history where it belongs.
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