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NFL Power Rankings entering Week 12: Will the Chiefs really miss the playoffs?
The Kansas City Chiefs, a franchise that has operated with the ruthless efficiency of a Tom Brady-era Patriots team for the better part of a decade, now finds itself staring into the abyss of a 5-5 record, a standing as shocking as a fumble from Patrick Mahomes in a two-minute drill. Since Mahomes took the helm, the Chiefs have made postseason football feel as inevitable as a sunrise, failing to secure a winning record only once.Now, the simple, brutal math of the NFL season is their primary opponent. To hit the probable AFC playoff benchmark of 10-7, they must navigate a treacherous seven-game stretch with a 5-2 record; a 4-3 finish might leave them on the outside looking in, a scenario almost unthinkable just months ago.Their chances for a tenth consecutive AFC West title are even more remote, requiring a near-perfect 7-0 run coupled with a Denver Broncos collapse. The remaining schedule is a gauntlet of potential pitfalls: a well-rested Indianapolis Colts team, a short-week road test against the explosive Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving, and critical divisional rematches with the Los Angeles Chargers and the Broncos.Advanced analytics from sources like DVOA still favor Kansas City, placing their playoff odds at a comforting 61%, but that number also reveals a startling 39% probability of absence—a figure that would send shockwaves through the league. The New York Times' playoff simulator is even more pessimistic, pegging their chances at 57%, a number depressed by damaging tiebreaker losses to the Chargers, Broncos, and the wild-card-contending Jacksonville Jaguars.The underlying data, however, suggests a regression to the mean is imminent. Their current 0-5 record in one-score games is as statistically unsustainable as their 11-0 record in such contests was last season; the law of averages dictates they will start winning these tight battles.The core talent, led by the generational Mahomes and the strategic genius of Andy Reid, remains undeniable. Yet, the offense has lacked its characteristic explosiveness, relying on methodical drives without the game-breaking plays that have defined their dynasty.The running back room lacks a dynamic threat, and the receiving corps beyond the reliable Travis Kelce has struggled to consistently separate. This has forced the Chiefs into a de facto playoff mode with six games remaining in the regular season, a pressure-cooker environment they are accustomed to, but one they never expected to enter from a position of such vulnerability. The entire AFC is watching, knowing that a Chiefs team fighting for its life is still one of the most dangerous propositions in football, but for the first time in the Mahomes era, there is a legitimate, palpable doubt that they will even be invited to the dance.
#Kansas City Chiefs
#NFL Power Rankings
#playoff chances
#Patrick Mahomes
#featured
