Outpoll | Madagascar military claims power as president relocates.

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Madagascar military claims power as president relocates.

Madagascar military claims power as president relocates.

2 days ago7 min read2 comments

In a stark echo of the 2009 coup that first brought Andry Rajoelina to power, Madagascar is once again teetering on the precipice of a full-blown constitutional crisis, a high-stakes political gambit where the very definition of 'control' is being contested in real-time. The nation's military leadership, in a move that sent shockwaves through diplomatic channels from Pretoria to Paris, has boldly asserted its authority, promising a fraught and uncertain transition to democratic elections within a two-year window—a timeline that historically serves as a veneer for prolonged military stewardship.Yet, from a secured location whose secrecy underscores the profound instability, President Rajoelina is defiantly countering the military's narrative, insisting through official channels that his administration remains the legitimate governing body of the island nation. This creates a perilous duality of power, a scenario ripe for analysis: we are witnessing not a simple seizure, but a sophisticated, slow-rolling power play where control over state media, the loyalty of mid-level officer corps, and the flow of international aid will be the true determinants of victory.The immediate risk matrix points towards civil unrest in the capital, Antananarivo, and a potential freeze on the critical tourism and vanilla export sectors that form the backbone of Madagascar's fragile economy. Looking deeper, this crisis is a symptom of chronic political ailments—persistent poverty, rampant corruption, and the bitter legacy of cyclical coups—that have plagued the country since its independence.Regional bodies like the African Union now face a critical test of their anti-putsch principles, while global powers, particularly France with its historical ties and China with its significant infrastructure investments, are forced into a delicate dance of non-alignment, wary of backing the losing horse in a conflict where the frontrunner is far from clear. The coming days will be a masterclass in political brinkmanship; will Rajoelina muster enough popular and institutional support to stage a counter-offensive, or will the military's control of the physical levers of power solidify into a new, albeit unelected, regime? The outcome will not only reshape Madagascar's future but will also serve as a bellwether for the resilience of democratic norms in a region increasingly susceptible to the siren song of authoritarian consolidation.