Outpoll | Elite army unit seizes power in Madagascar.

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Elite army unit seizes power in Madagascar.

Elite army unit seizes power in Madagascar.

2 days ago7 min read4 comments

The fragile political order in Madagascar has been violently upended, with an elite army unit announcing it has seized power from President Andry Rajoelina in a swift, decisive coup that sent crowds celebrating into the streets of the capital, Antananarivo. This is not an isolated incident but the latest convulsion in a nation with a long and tortured history of political instability, where military intervention has repeatedly shaped the destiny of its people.The unit in question, believed to be the Republican Guard or a similarly vetted special forces detachment, moved with surgical precision in the early hours, securing key government buildings, the national broadcasting headquarters, and military barracks with minimal reported bloodshed, suggesting either meticulous planning or significant internal complicity within the broader security apparatus. The president's whereabouts remain unknown, though unconfirmed reports from intelligence sources suggest he may have been detained at his Iavoloha Palace residence.The scenes of public jubilation, while striking, reveal the deep-seated public disillusionment with Rajoelina's administration, which had been accused of deepening poverty and corruption despite the country's vast mineral wealth; his initial rise to power in 2009 was itself a U. S.-condemned coup, underscoring a cyclical pattern of extra-constitutional power grabs that have plagued the island since its independence from France in 1960. Regional bodies, including the African Union and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), have emergency sessions underway, with initial statements condemning the unconstitutional transfer of power and calling for the immediate restoration of civilian rule, but their leverage is limited by Madagascar's geopolitical isolation and its own economic struggles.International reaction will be a key determinant; France, the former colonial power, and the United States are monitoring the situation closely, with aid packages and diplomatic recognition hanging in the balance. The immediate economic fallout has been severe, with the Malagasy ariary plummeting against the dollar and the price of vanilla, one of the nation's key exports, facing extreme volatility.Analysts from risk consultancies like Control Risks are already modeling scenarios, from a protracted power struggle between different military factions to a rapid installation of a civilian-led transitional government that could attempt to legitimize the coup. The critical question now is whether this military faction can consolidate its control beyond the capital and secure the loyalty of the army's disparate commands, or if this act will plunge the nation into a fresh period of violent factionalism, reminiscent of the 2009 crisis that crippled the economy for years. The world watches, yet again, as Madagascar stands at another precipice, its future once more decided not at the ballot box, but at the barrel of a gun.