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  5. 调解方竭力阻止阿富汗-巴基斯坦爆发战争
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调解方竭力阻止阿富汗-巴基斯坦爆发战争

OL
Oliver Scott
2 days ago7 min read2 comments
阿富汗塔利班政权与巴基斯坦之间达成的脆弱停火协议正濒临彻底崩溃的边缘。近日巴基斯坦境内发生一系列毁灭性自杀式爆炸袭击,以及随后于上周二引发激烈争议的越境无人机报复性打击指控,使这条外交纽带被拉伸至极限。此次局势升级并非孤立冲突,而是沿历史遗留的杜兰线边界爆发的最新暴力震动——这条殖民时代遗留的边界从未被任何阿富汗政府正式承认,始终是长期冲突的爆发点。随着伊斯兰堡与喀布尔塔利班政府均公开誓言报复,局势风险评估指向双方可能迅速失控地滑向大规模常规战争。来自卡塔尔、土耳其、伊朗和俄罗斯等地区的调解方正争分夺秒地开展工作,试图在极其有限的窗口期内阻止这一局面。巴基斯坦塔利班运动(TTP)宣称制造了自杀式袭击,伊斯兰堡当局指认其从阿富汗境内的安全庇护所发动袭击,这被视为对巴基斯坦国家安全的根本威胁,巴军方认为必须采取压倒性武力回应,据报由此发动了越境无人机行动。反之对塔利班而言,任何侵犯阿富汗主权的行为——特别是来自强大邻国的行动——都是生存挑战,若未采取强硬反制措施,其在国内强硬派支持者中的威信将严重受损。调解方自身也带着复杂且时常相互冲突的议程:卡塔尔因长期接纳塔利班政治办事处而拥有独特外交渠道,但缺乏强制力;土耳其试图通过冲突调解扩大在穆斯林世界的影响力;伊朗既担忧难民危机又害怕东部边境局势恶化;俄罗斯则将乱局视为削弱美国区域影响力、展现其全球权力掮客地位的契机。监测局势的分析人士警告,全面冲突将引发灾难性人道主义后果,迫使本已面临严重粮食安全危机的数十万民众流离失所,同时可能招致外部势力介入,破坏整个中亚走廊的稳定。若此次外交努力失败,不仅意味着双方将重回炮火互袭的恶性循环,更标志着美国撤军后建立的脆弱区域秩序彻底瓦解,将使南亚陷入持久战的新危险篇章。.
#hottest news
#Afghanistan
#Pakistan
#Taliban
#ceasefire
#drone strikes
#mediators
#Qatar
#Turkey
#Iran
#Russia

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